Rafael Ortega: Using Return Stacking To Build an All-Terrain Portfolio
In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo sits down with Rafael Ortega, a distinguished Spanish investor and Senior Investment Fund Manager at Andbank Wealth Management. Known for pioneering innovative portfolio solutions in Spain—from the classic permanent portfolio to advanced return stacking and off-road strategies—Rafael discusses a wide range of topics including diversification, structural risk balancing, leveraging, regulatory hurdles, and the future of portable alpha in today’s dynamic markets.
Topics Discussed
- Rafael Ortega’s journey from engineering to a transformative investment philosophy
- The evolution of the permanent portfolio strategy into a modern diversified approach
- Structural diversification and risk balancing using all-weather return stacking
- Customizing portfolio volatility through post-diversification leverage
- Overcoming operational and regulatory hurdles in Europe’s investment landscape
- The integration of trend following, carry, and other non-traditional diversifiers
- Communicating advanced diversification concepts to retail investors
- The future outlook for portable alpha and return stacking in an evolving regulatory framework
Mentioned in this episode:
The Return Stacking Symposium
October 8, 2025 | Chicago A full day of curated portable alpha / return stacking education. Register Here: https://www.returnstacked.com/return-stacking-symposium-2025/
Transcript
This is what I've been looking for, right?
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:I can create a portfolio.
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:I can finally create a portfolio that
is truly diversified, that is using
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:everything that we know we can use.
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:So that means not only
assets, but also strategies.
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:We can try to balance those things out.
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:It's gonna be a great long-term,
sharpe ratio portfolio.
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:It's gonna be stable, it's gonna
be all weather, and then we can
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:get it to the volatility that
people actually want, right?
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:And if they want an 8%
volatility portfolio, we can
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:do that without losing balance.
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:If you want a 12% volatility
portfolio, we can now do that.
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:And it's not losing balance, right?
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Hello and welcome
everybody Today I have a very special
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:guest, a friend of mine and, and
colleague Rafael Ortega which is a
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:Spanish investor, not from Latin America,
but from Spain, and he is currently
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:a senior investment fund manager at
Andbank Wealth Management, where he
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:manages a bunch of portfolios including
permanent portfolio ideas, all terrain,
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:return stacking, and what he calls the,
off-road investor approach, which are
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:custom built portfolios for institutions
and high net worth individuals.
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:Yeah, this is a, interview that I've
been wanting to have for a while now.
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:I'm also, been doing his podcast
in Spanish, called The Off-Road
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:Investor for over a year now.
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:Rafa?
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:Yeah.
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:Yeah.
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:And I struggle a little bit with the
nomenclature in Spanish when it comes to
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:our industry, and I'm sure Rafa's gonna go
through the same, it's my turn to make him
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:suffer a little bit and do it in English.
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:But,
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:I figured that, it would be a great
time, to bring him on board because I
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:think, broadly speaking, when we talk
about return stacking, and the way
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:that we've really garnered attention is
how do people stack returns above a 60
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:40 portfolio or 80 20 portfolio, or a
hundred percent equity plus portfolio.
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:But, And then you get into, okay, what
else can we do with the return stacking?
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:Maybe there's a more balanced approach
to building a portfolio and you
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:get to an ultra terrain approach.
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:But Raf actually came
the other way around.
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:He started, when I met him, anyway,
he's gonna tell us his background,
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:but when I met him, he actually had
already started thinking about, the
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:concept of a balanced portfolio and
then built himself into all terrain.
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:And now he's thinking about in
the latest iterations of doing
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:60 40 plus or a hundred plus.
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:so yes, he is a fantastic partner.
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:he actually has taken the Return
Stacked Portfolio Solutions moniker
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:and, and on our behalf started
creating, the brand in Spain.
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:So we'll talk a little bit about that,
but before I get into all of the fun
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:stuff, I, do want the audience to get a,
bit of a background on you and how you
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:started as a, as an engineer and ended up
in Return Stacking, Portfolio Solutions.
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:So maybe give us a, broad
overview of your history.
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:Rafael Ortega: first of all, sorry for my
English, I, all the investing information
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:I consume is in English, but then I
never speak about investing in English,
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:so I'm sure some of the words are not
gonna come and maybe Rodrigo can help
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:as I've been helping him in Spanish.
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:the thing is, I started
not as an investor, right?
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:I did engineering.
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:I thought I was gonna be some
sort of consultant and I actually
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:started in a, one of those big
consultancy firms as an analyst.
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:But that lasted only a couple of months
because then, I was studying and living
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:in Madrid my family is from Valencia,
that's another city in the east of Spain.
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:And my family used to run, my mother
used to run a small business and
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:then she was sick and went on a The
business was in a crisis and, I felt
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:like the prodigal son that had to come
back and, do something about that.
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:My have a younger brother,
he was still studying.
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:And, my father had recently passed away,
so we were go going through a, like a huge
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:family crisis we solved it eventually.
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:And then at that point I was looking
at, like any family and any business,
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:what do you do when you make more
than you when than you consume?
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:So what do you, what do
we do with those savings?
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:But obviously I was, youngish
like 20 something, but I was
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:looking at, family money.
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:I, hadn't really made that.
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:Also something that had taken
a couple generations to build.
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:I started looking online on
what do you do when you invest?
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:And everything I found was, trading
or, oddly enough, in Spain there's
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:a huge value investing culture.
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:So I got into, the Warren Buffets
and Benjamin Hams and all of that.
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:I also.
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:had a look at what had
been done in the past.
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:And my mother used to work with a local
bank, and I very, very fast I found
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:that most commercial banks, first of
all, in Spain until now, most people
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:just relied on their state pension.
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:financial literacy is very, low.
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:Only the newer generations are
starting to see that they, will need
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:to have some savings, the future.
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:So basically, everyone worked with their
commercial bank, which just gives you,
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:closet indexed funds that are expensive.
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:strategy is expensive.
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:That's not gonna take you anywhere.
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:And,
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:I, just couldn't find a solution
that made sense or made sense for me.
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:When I looked at a value investor, they
would say have these great marketing
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:things, you know, value is what you
get, but price is just what you pay.
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:And that's, that sounds great, but if
you've just gone through a crisis like
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:I have just done, and if your savings
are 50% down, it doesn't matter that
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:you tell me that the value isn't down.
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:The price is what matters if,
when you need your savings, right?
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:Most people, or at least my understanding
of this was most people need to
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:balance out participating protecting.
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:You need both of those.
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:And that to me is what makes
sense to almost everyone.
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:And I started looking at market
history and other strategies
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:and I just didn't see it.
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:I saw those 50% draw downs.
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:And then even if you have a theoretically
balanced portfolio with stocks and
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:bonds, those also go through huge
draw downs when there's inflation.
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:And just looked around and I couldn't see
anything that I could believe in, right?
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:Or that I, liked.
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:I don't know how, I just don't
know how found Harry Brown and
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:the permanent portfolio idea, and
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: You don't remember?
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:Rafael Ortega: I don't know what
I saw it the first time, right?
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:Just, I must have read a blog post
or something, and that just clicked.
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:I, I read it and I thought, okay,
this makes so much sense to me.
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:And for those who don't know, basically
the permanent portfolio idea is that,
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:we're gonna have economic cycles, we're,
they're really bad at anticipating
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:the next step of the cycle, or even
if we know what's gonna happen, we
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:have to also have the timing right.
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:It's just too difficult.
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:But at the same time, we do know
that different assets, and then
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:eventually I found that different
strategies, also have this behavior.
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:They behave in different ways
in different environments.
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:And that is something you
can believe in, right?
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:We know that's gonna happen eventually.
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:It's not in the short term, but in the
medium term that, eventually happens.
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:So you can map those.
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:And the simplest version of this would
be a portfolio that has something
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:that works for growth, something
that works for deflation, something
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:that works for inflation, and then
something that will work in a recession.
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:Brown, had stocks, bonds, gold
and cash, or invested cash.
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:And so you have three assets that
are, high volatility, that's 75% of
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:the portfolio, 75% of the portfolio
have low correlation, and then you
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:have a buffer, which essentially is
de-levering that portfolio for you.
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:So, you have a conservative
approach investing has low
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:volatility, good returns.
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:It works in different market, scenarios.
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:I think what you're showing here is
yeah, the different asset classes and
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:what do we expect right from them.
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:But not only what do we expect, like
what do we know is gonna happen, right?
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:The theory.
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
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:Yeah.
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:That's a thing that's a kind
of the key thing here, right?
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:So, what I'm showing here for those that
aren't, watching and listening is just
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:the performance of some periods where
we've seen inflationary stagnation,
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:inflationary boom, deflationary
bust, and disinflationary boom.
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:which are just fancy names for when
the intersection between high or
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:low inflation shocks and positive
or negative inflation shocks happen.
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:And, and you can see clearly, right?
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:And this is, I think the big unlock
when you get into this world is, okay,
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:everybody wants to just do better.
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:Warren Buffett value investing and throw
in a little bonds just to reduce risk.
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:But the reality is that a lot of retirees
in the last few years that put a hundred
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:percent of their money in bonds have
realized that even bonds have risk.
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:and you can, and you don't have to
have a lived experience that tells you
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:that for them to modify your behavior.
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:before we saw the 2022 inflation
shocks, you and I had already
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:come to the conclusion that high
inflation would be bad for both
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:equities and bonds at the same time.
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:But, and this chart here just shows,
inflationary stagnation, you're, you,
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:what you generally saw historically was
commodities, gold, and in this case,
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:trend following, we'll get to that.
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:But, Harry Brown is more
traditional assets, right?
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:More gold than anything.
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:And, and then inflationary boom, which
is high in inflation, accelerating
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:growth, everything floats up, but the
biggest winners are commodities and gold.
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:disinflationary boom, which is what our
lived experience, and most investors
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:lived experience has spent most of
their time on is high accelerating
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:growth shocks and falling inflation.
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:And that means, of course, that
equities and bonds are gonna do well.
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:And I think that's why the 60 40 has
become so prominent and deflationary
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:bust is when you have a bear market
and, a negative growth shock and
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:slowing growth without inflation, right?
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:So that's generally equities down,
commodities down, and then you
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:see bonds really picking up the
baton trend following and, and
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:commodities, sorry, and, gold bonds
and trend following, getting hurt.
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:So that's when you understand that
framework, you're like, oh, okay.
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:We need to think about my families,
in your case, right, It was my
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:family's wealth going forward, and
Harry Brown basically, from what
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:I understand, it was fairly simple
and the original idea is just, a
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:quarter, cash gold equity loan, right?
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:Rafael Ortega: seems, it's,
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:simple that it looks silly,
but if you look at it
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:from what I know now, I.
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:Actually the three assets are kind
of risk parity, equal X, right?
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:Because it's called stocks
and long-term, bonds.
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:And those kind of have the
same volatility, right?
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:So you're actually doing like
a risk parity from those three.
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:And then the other one is just a buffer.
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:It's just de-leveraging the portfolio.
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:So you have the conservative approach
because he was trying to find a
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:solution that anyone could do and
that it made sense for almost anyone.
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:So the conservative approach
to that made a lot of sense.
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:Also, we can go on that
a little later, right?
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:But with only, if you only have
stocks, quantum gold, there are
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:still sometimes where those three
can go down, down especially
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:through, some crisis and shocks.
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:And so he wanted something that
would protect you even then, right?
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:something that was
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
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:Rafael Ortega: all-terrain I found that,
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: I can I just
pause there for one second?
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:One thing that I think few
people understand is when we
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:say bonds, most people think
about that aggregate bond index.
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:Aggregate bond portfolio that
has a, generally speaking, has a
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:duration of six to seven years.
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:Volatility profile of four or 5%.
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:and the key behind balance is
making sure that the maniacs aren't
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:taken over the asylum, right?
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:That, you don't want equities
to be four tenths of volatility
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:of your bond portfolio.
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:And there's two ways of doing that
leverage, which we'll talk about in
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:a sec, but more importantly here, if
you go out the curve, and the longer
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:the duration, the more the volatility,
therefore the bigger the impact when
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:you need it the most and the bigger
the impact when you're getting hurt.
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:But it's, if it's balance and risk across
equity and bonds, that's the way to do it.
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:So when we talk about bonds, here,
we're, really talking about lingerie
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:bonds, which nobody does, right?
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:Because it's too volatile, because
bonds are supposed to be safe,
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:they're not supposed to be volatile.
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:And it's so funny because
they could be whatever you.
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:Rafael Ortega: exactly.
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:So I started my like, own
personal portfolio, like for, the
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:company, for the business or the
family, however you wanna see it.
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:And it was a permanent portfolio, and
I started talking about the permanent
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:portfolio with, different banks
because I was trying to get, those
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:long-term bonds in that gold position.
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:And it was almost impossible, right?
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:And everyone looked at me like, like 25%?
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:what?
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:they, they couldn't, understand.
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:And then also I, started looking
online and finding more people.
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:Eventually I found you guys
and I found other, all weather
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:solutions or all-terrain solutions.
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:But, at that point in time, that's,
that I was like my first aha moment
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:where, as we've said before, once
you see it, you just can't unsee it.
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:And I noticed that no one in Spain,
or in the Spanish internet world
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:was actually talking about this.
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:Like absolutely no one.
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:And even in the anglosphere, as I, I like
to call it, though, you can find people
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:talking about programing portfolio ideas
and all weather, it's, there, there's
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:more people doing it and there's obviously
like you guys and more people doing it.
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:but it's not that, it's
not standard, right?
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:Like it's more of a niche thing.
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:In, in the, in Spain or in Spanish
absolutely no one was talking about this.
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:So that sent me through, double
path, one of, okay, there's
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:a business opportunity here.
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:So I, this makes a lot of sense.
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:It makes sense for me.
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:There's obviously more people
than it makes sense for.
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:I need to learn more about this
and, get my license and become an
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:advisor and start preaching this.
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:And then on the other side, I
need to, keep learning more and
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:more about how to implement these
strategies better and better.
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:And that's how I found you guys.
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:I found, my favor with
this Trinity approach.
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:I found, eventually found Corey.
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:I found Ray De, Ray Dalio and all
of his, all of his, pupils and
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:all of those, risk party ideas.
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:So I just, spent the last decade and
a half, reading and trying to see what
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:people were doing in the space and then
trying to get my way through compliance
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:teams and, Spanish institutions to
try to get these things back so that
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:investors in Spain can actually,
have a portfolio that does this.
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, being a
trail blazer is not always fun.
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:Rafael Ortega: Yeah
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:along the way I, I built, a community
of people that believe in this, right?
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:So when, As you were saying, When,
you came up with the, that all-terrain
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:paper Return Stacking Anything.
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:I see, I started learning
about trend following.
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:Anything I see, I just see it from this,
structural diversification standpoint.
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:I just can't see it any
other, any other way I.
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
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:And, I'll give you credit.
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:you are, I, always tell people that
you're the Corey Hoffstein of the,
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:Spanish investment space because
when you say you built a community,
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:you really are an incredible writer
and synthesizer of information.
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:even the stuff that we've written
that we think we synthesize, when,
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:you take your take, when you have
your take and your go, it is so
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:much easier to under to understand.
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:So kudos and credits to you for
being able to do that for a community
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:that has literally never heard of
most of this stuff, at least in the
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:US you didn't, it's wide enough.
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:And Canada, that you
can reach some people.
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:you're starting from scratch.
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:Every single person you're talking to
like has never heard about this, right?
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:And so you, I think you must have learned
by slamming your head against the wall how
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:to communicate with a community and create
a, pretty large one, as I see it now.
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:Rafael Ortega: think whenever I read
your stuff, I, feel like, okay, this is
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:written for someone that knows what we're
talking about, and I always try to, water
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:it down into the essence of it because
I'm usually talking to retail, right?
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:I, most in Spain, most
funds are sold, right?
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:People that do invest with
me buy my funds, right?
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:they buy the idea and then
they go into the, strategy.
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:I have no, no commercial, team.
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:I, just do education and people find our
stuff, and if they have the similar, if
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:they buy into the idea or the philosophy.
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:Then they eventually, invest or they
do something similar and then preach it
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:around and then that hits other people.
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:But, that, that's basically what
I've been trying to, trying to do.
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:But always with that focus on that,
there's many things I don't know, but I
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:do know that, diversification works and
that the true diversification is what I
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:think, I think Adam is the first person I
read that said structural diversification.
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:And that just, again, I think one
of the things that all-terrain
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:or -weather investors don't
have is the same nomenclature.
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:And I think that's something that value
investors have and other investors
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:have, and that brings a lot of those
people together and then that creates a
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:community and that helps the ideas grow.
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:So I like how, you guys have been,
interviewing people that are supposedly
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:your, competitors, but, in the way I see
it they're, not your competitor, right?
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:Your competitor is, someone that's doing
a index, fund, robo advisor thing or,
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:just a highly active in the sense of
stock picking, stock picking strategy.
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:we're doing something different
and we need to speak about it,
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:without trying to hide what we're doing.
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:Like with the example of return
stacking, I think it's very clear.
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:I think the reason people buy return
stacking is that you're actually
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:saying what you're doing and you're
not scared of saying what you're doing.
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:And, you're not scared of defending
the idea that you're trying to defend.
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:It's tough.
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:'cause you're saying things
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
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:Rafael Ortega: leverage, manage futures.
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:especially when I, every time I bring
something to the table, as you were
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:saying, no one's certain like when
I have to explain, or global macro or
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:carry strategies, like most of the, time
people are like, what a new thing again.
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, we
feel your pain for sure.
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:And yeah, this is why communication and
having the ability to synthesize things
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:as well as you do is important here.
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:but let's, go back to, you have this
interesting permanent portfolio approach
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:and your revolution towards like where,
you got stuck and then how return stacking
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:might have unlocked some value there.
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:Rafael Ortega: thing is, when I started
with a permanent portfolio for myself,
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:but when I got the opportunity, I
actually became a financial advisor.
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:That's where I got my first clients
and that I started to grow a base
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:of, investors that were interested
in, adding something different
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:to their portfolios, right?
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:That's how I, actually started
and eventually I got the
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:opportunity to start a small fund.
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:So, I could build a strategy and people
could go into the strategy instead of
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:me, managing everyone's little portfolio.
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:and I thought at the time, this was an
error, by the way, but at the time I
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:thought that most people wanted something
that was not as conservative, right?
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:The permanent portfolio's problem.
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:and, I don't think it's a problem.
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:I think it's, made, it's on purpose,
but it's a pretty conservative strategy.
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:It's conservative in many ways.
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:It's conservative because
it has low volatility.
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:It's conservative because it's
only using biggest assets around
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:because, Brown was thinking about
something that, was fail safe.
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:It wouldn't blow up.
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:But there, he, preached this,
late seventies, early eighties.
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:And, eventually there's more things that
we can do with our portfolio, right?
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:There's more, going on now that
didn't exist then, and that maybe
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:you can bring into your strategy.
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:And I was trying to find something that
was, more, I wanna say balanced, but,
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:really, that was equivalent to a 60 40,
at least in most people's minds, right?
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:Something that was, medium risk.
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:Let's call it medium risk, but yeah,
something that was equivalent to a 60 40.
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:and every time I tried to build
a portfolio, design, a portfolio
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:that was matching 60 40 volatility,
I was losing the balance, right?
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:Because you have to have more stocks.
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:If you have to have more stocks, then
suddenly those stocks are running
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:the asylum, as you were saying.
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:Then if I add diversifiers on the other
side, I get more tracking error, and
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:then people are gonna ask questions
when those diversifiers are not working.
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:So it was, it was a tough challenge.
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:I, think I built a portfolio that was,
it's still on now, it's transitioning to a
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:return stack version of the portfolio, but
it's something that was, let's say, around
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:50% equities or 60% equities, and then the
rest was, an all-terrain defense, right?
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:But.
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:If you want more volatility and you
don't use leverage, the only way to
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:do this is to get more stocks in.
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:And then when stocks fall,
your all terrain defense is not
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:gonna recoup all those losses.
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:It's just gonna be more, you have
more trust on the fact that it's
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:gonna work, better than just bonds,
because bonds can also fall sometimes.
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:And all-terrain defense
is gonna work more times.
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:It's gonna, it's gonna work against
those stocks, but it's not really
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:gonna, recover the loss that you got.
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:It's just gonna, what's the word
I'm looking for a word that it's
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:not Rodrigo but it's like you're,
look, you're like diluting your
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:risk in a more efficient way, but
it's not really, you're not really
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:balance things, balancing things out.
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:That's.
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:And every
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:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, that, that.
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:Rafael Ortega: into, okay, so maybe
we get defensive equities and maybe
387
:we do some, momentum thing on top.
388
:And I was just trying lots of
things to find balance and with,
389
:with, traditional strategies.
390
:It's just now I think
it's just impossible.
391
:Like you, you're never gonna,
you always have to take more risk
392
:in the form of cycle risk and.
393
:Rodrigo Gordillo: So let me, lemme
pause there for a second and just
394
:show an old, an oldie, but a goodie.
395
:We've been talking about
this already, right?
396
:But this one just shows a chart of
gold, global equities, commodities,
397
:and 10 year treasuries, right?
398
:Roughly speaking, I don't
, this is:
399
:Roughly speaking, they all make the
same amount of return, but obviously
400
:the paths are wildly different, right?
401
:So which one do you want to
choose is is always the question.
402
:And from the perspective of risk balancing
these, again, we talked about long-term
403
:treasuries, I'm using the 10-year.
404
:If you run a simple equal risk
contribution analysis to try to make
405
:sure that we balance things off,
you're looking at 42% in treasuries,
406
:29% in trend following here, 15% in
global equities, 12% in commodities
407
:to get a hundred percent portfolio.
408
:And of course the 10,000 foot view
of that is that you get this smoothed
409
:out line that kind of crosses in the
middle of everything, but actually
410
:slightly outperforms over the long term,
mainly due to the rebalancing benefit,
411
:That, that diversification premium.
412
:Now, while this line looks amazing, right?
413
:let's, this is a, I was trying to think
about a different way of explaining
414
:to people why is it that an equal risk
portfolio is generally going to not
415
:provide the returns that a high risk
portfolio like equities is gonna provide?
416
:And the reality is that it's not
true over many decades, right?
417
:If you think about the
equity risk premium, right?
418
:What's the equity risk premium?
419
:depends on, global equity,
risk premium, what is it?
420
:3.5%,
421
:4% above cash, right?
422
:So it's say notional, we're
looking at 6% annualized, right?
423
:Term premium, is two, 3%.
424
:when you actually look at all
these returns, they all at the end,
425
:as we can see from this graphic,
roughly make the same return.
426
:The problem is that by diversifying
you're clustering that return
427
:around that long term more often.
428
:And sadly, a 60 40 investor, an 80 20
investor tends to see more double digit
429
:years than you do when you're balanced.
430
:And that's painful.
431
:And that reduces risk and
reduces, long-term returns.
432
:So you have to wait a long time to
be able to say, okay, we did it.
433
:We did the same or better
than with lower risk.
434
:And the reality is that
it's boring for most people.
435
:When you create this portfolio and
you have a 4% volatility portfolio,
436
:you're constantly apologizing
for not putting enough risk on.
437
:And the reality is that you're up
until recently, you were limited
438
:as to what you could do in terms of
giving people what they wanted, which
439
:is, look, I'm used to, a standard
deviation in my portfolio of 12%, 15%.
440
:Like I'm okay with that.
441
:I'm okay with the
drawdowns that I've seen.
442
:Can you give me that?
443
:And the answer was no.
444
:The answer was no.
445
:This, you get this is the maximum
balance portfolio you can get.
446
:and so anyway, I thought I'd paused there
and show people what we were, what we're.
447
:Rafael Ortega: the, that graph, because
I, love it because, it makes so much
448
:sense and then no one likes it in real
life because in life, I like to sometimes
449
:show this and people will always choose
that dark blue line, then show it
450
:starting in 2010 and then that just
451
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Right.
452
:Rafael Ortega: flat.
453
:great risk return, like gr great,
sharpe ratio, but it's just boring.
454
:It just gives you a couple percentage
points, while some of the other
455
:strategies in this, exactly that
point in time, it's gonna be stocks,
456
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah,
457
:Rafael Ortega: you those double
digit deterrence and like
458
:incredibly high sharp ratios.
459
:And it doesn't matter how many
times you show this, people are
460
:gonna be okay when they see it.
461
:And then after a couple of
months of, low volatility, low
462
:returns, they're gonna ditch it.
463
:Rodrigo Gordillo: exactly.
464
:Rafael Ortega: just the way it is And,
465
:Rodrigo Gordillo: and it, and to their
credit, if they feel they're leaving
466
:money on the table because they can
take more risk, it's, a problem.
467
:Rafael Ortega: that's exactly the
problem I, I was running into.
468
:I wanted to add more diversification
because I knew it worked.
469
:I, thought the portfolios were
gonna be, more resilient more
470
:all-weather and I was, all in on that.
471
:But the more diversification you add,
diversification works so well that
472
:volatility goes down and the volatility
goes down, eventually returns go down too.
473
:then I wanted a bit more volatility
and a bit more return and I
474
:needed to have more stocks there.
475
:And then I was losing that balance
and then I was going back and forth
476
:between those two things, right?
477
:More volatility always meant,
that you had to sacrifice returns.
478
:And then when you had more stocks in, I
was saying that I was all weather, but
479
:I wasn't all weather 'cause I had 50
to 60% equities in my portfolio, right?
480
:way that a 50 to 60%, equity portfolio
is gonna be all weather because then
481
:you would need a leveraged defense,
Something that was not just a mix of gold
482
:bond, bonds and, and trends following
and other alternative strategies.
483
:Though that was gonna be an all-weather
defense, but not an all-weather portfolio.
484
:was the problem.
485
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
486
:Rafael Ortega: And then when you came up
with the return stacking, paper that I.
487
:was my second aha moment where I saw it.
488
:I couldn't unsee it.
489
:I remember guys did a, late livestream
or maybe an episode, I'm not sure.
490
:And I went on the chat and asked,
you were saying, you know how return
491
:stacking, we'll talk about this now.
492
:like how it can create some
tracking error, whatever.
493
:And I think I said something
like, okay, but what if you don't
494
:care about the tracking error?
495
:Let's talk about a theory.
496
:and think one of you like
brushed it off a bit, okay, maybe
497
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
498
:Because 99% of our
audience cares about that.
499
:Gonna fuel lunatics like us.
500
:Yeah.
501
:Rafael Ortega: I emailed you like,
okay brother, we need to talk
502
:because if I can do this, this is
what I've been looking for, right?
503
:I can create a portfolio.
504
:I can finally create a portfolio that
is truly diversified, that is using
505
:everything that we know we can use.
506
:So that means not only
assets, but also strategies.
507
:We can try to balance those things out.
508
:It's gonna be a great long-term,
sharpe ratio portfolio.
509
:It's gonna be stable, it's gonna
be all weather, and then we can
510
:get it to the volatility that
people actually want, right?
511
:And if they want an 8%
volatility portfolio, we can
512
:do that without losing balance.
513
:If you want a 12% volatility
portfolio, we can now do that.
514
:And it's not losing balance, right?
515
:You're not getting, you're getting
more risk, you're getting more,
516
:you're getting exposure, which is
what you want, but you're not getting
517
:it through a concentrated cycle risk
bit, which is what you do when you
518
:have a 50 to 60% equity portfolio.
519
:And I, that I went crazy around the
idea and, luckily, and a half or
520
:something later, we finally did it.
521
:And we have, portfolios on that
can actually implement these,
522
:these concepts in, Spain.
523
:So very grateful
524
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, and more, most
of the battle that I saw you fight
525
:is a battle that we fought originally
too in Canada is you're not just
526
:fighting a battle of ideas, but you're,
running into operational roadblocks.
527
:compliance teams don't want you to do X,
Y, Z, the even platforms don't even have
528
:the capability of providing you what you
want or you being able to invest in US
529
:ETFs that you, that use gold and stuff
like, it's just been a constant struggle
530
:and you've mostly fought through all that.
531
:tell us a little bit about that journey.
532
:Rafael Ortega: Yeah.
533
:So the thing is that, I mean
it's counterintuitive, right?
534
:I'm trying to say that I'm building
something that is leveraged.
535
:It's a hundred percent leverage, but it's
actually a balanced, allocation, right?
536
:And that goes against everything that
everyone has heard in, or everyone that
537
:you get, that's learning about investing
will, will get as that association that
538
:leverage more leverage means more risk.
539
:to be fair, all that's equal.
540
:Yeah.
541
:more
542
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
543
:Rafael Ortega: more risk.
544
:it all depends what
we're comparing, right?
545
:'cause I think, everyone would understand
that if you have a very risky thing and
546
:a very unrisky thing, and sometimes you
can leverage the unrisky thing and it will
547
:still be less risky than the risky thing.
548
:But anyways, the, the thing here is
that, I found that the solution to this
549
:problem is how you frame it, right?
550
:People think more leverage means,
more risk, more leverage means
551
:that you're chasing higher returns.
552
:That's not what we're doing, right?
553
:We're using leverage
after we're diversifying.
554
:So the right order is you
have a certain amount of risk.
555
:Now we are diversifying and we're adding
true structural diversification to
556
:different assets and different strategies.
557
:So we're bringing volatility down
and because volatility is down, your
558
:returns are down, and we're using
leverage to recover the exposure
559
:you lost through diversification.
560
:So we're using leverage
after we're diversifying.
561
:And again, this is another of the things
that I think everyone in the world
562
:should be using because if you do the
math and match, amount of added exposure
563
:so that it matches the, risk through
added exposure matches the reduction in
564
:risk you get through diversification,
you're doing that thing that, the phrase?
565
:Eating your cake or what is it?
566
:Rodrigo Gordillo: I, you are, yeah,
you're having your cake and eating
567
:it too, having your diversification
cake and eating, eating it too.
568
:Yeah.
569
:Rafael Ortega: so it's, that
is the right order, right?
570
:We're reducing risk and then we're
using leverage to recover the lost risk.
571
:Another way to see it is that you're
actually, this is, okay, this is
572
:from a, all-terrain, point of view.
573
:If you look at it from a traditional
portfolio where you have, stocks
574
:and bonds you're adding, more
diversification through stacking,
575
:that is defensive leverage.
576
:You're adding more
defense to your portfolio.
577
:So if you do it right,
and if you do the math.
578
:Most of the times, you're not
really adding that much risk.
579
:It comes with, with, its, what's the word?
580
:With its, contra or
581
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, it's, you can say
counterpoints, it comes with this off,
582
:with, its, there's other offsetting things
that happen by when you use leverage,
583
:but not necessarily in the same way.
584
:Rafael Ortega: you will
have, error, right?
585
:It comes in the form of tracking error.
586
:It comes in the form of your volatility
is gonna be more stable, which, sounds
587
:good until you see it live, right?
588
:That you're actually getting hurt
more, very little, but all the time.
589
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, more often.
590
:But,
591
:Rafael Ortega: it more.
592
:Rodrigo Gordillo: yeah, so that's, the
thing I wanted to, 'cause we've chatted
593
:about this a lot, and this is, this
comes from Corey's saying that risk,
594
:cannot be, trans cannot, be eliminated.
595
:It can only be transformed.
596
:And so how do you, talk about that?
597
:Rafael Ortega: Again.
598
:I think the way to make people
understand this is to do it
599
:in the right order, right?
600
:So the right order should be how much
risk are you willing to take in the
601
:form of volatility, in the form of
expected drawdowns, et cetera, right?
602
:Once that is clear, then how do
we take that risk and how do we
603
:do it in the most efficient way?
604
:If you build a portfolio, again
that is just stocks and bonds, you
605
:are taking a lot of market risk.
606
:I've heard you say many times that
when you look at S&P 500 and you
607
:use an ETF, that ETF is unleveraged.
608
:But if you look at the companies
beneath the ETF and you look at
609
:the leverage within the companies
in the ETF, you're actually using
610
:three times leverage, right?
611
:If I remember right.
612
:Something
613
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
614
:Three to one.
615
:Four to one.
616
:Yeah.
617
:Rafael Ortega: you're taking market
cycle risk and we don't have that
618
:market cycle risk because that tends to.
619
:Crash.
620
:eventually, like once every, whatever
years, it will, it, we will get into that
621
:part of the cycle where stocks just don't
work and you get those big drawdowns.
622
:You want to take that risk
and that risk is the risk that
623
:you're diversifying, right?
624
:So you wanna add other things that are
gonna move in different ways, ebb and
625
:flow in different moments, and it's
the same amount of risk, but if you
626
:take the risk in smaller doses, the
same amount of risk, it is much better
627
:than just feeling like there's no risk,
which is how a 60 40 portfolio feels
628
:when everything is going your way.
629
:And then one day, you don't know when,
it's gonna come and it's gonna hurt you.
630
:And there's a man, how do
you say this in English?
631
:There's a.
632
:asymmetry in the way
returns come right with that
633
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah,
634
:Rafael Ortega: understands where
10%, draw down you, you're back
635
:at zero with 11%, but a 50% draw
down needs a hundred percent.
636
:So the same amount of
637
:Rodrigo Gordillo: to break back.
638
:Rafael Ortega: way to take that risk
is to try and do it in smaller doses.
639
:Smaller doses makes a lot of sense
until you feel it when the other
640
:person is not feeling it, right?
641
:And that's what happens.
642
:Rodrigo Gordillo: So, you know
what, Corey and I yesterday, were
643
:having we're looking at how to
tell this story about this, right?
644
:This idea that there's an, there's.
645
:There's risk inequities and there's risk
in all-terrain or equal, we're looking
646
:at an equal risk portfolio of assets.
647
:And so what I, wanted to see is how
often you're in drawdown in, in the
648
:S&P 500 on a daily basis, right?
649
:So how often are you hitting new
high and started losing money
650
:versus how often you're in drawdown?
651
:I think we did trend following.
652
:We did gold.
653
:What's fascinating, there's a drawdown
in recovery chart that we often use.
654
:I'll see if I can find it here,
later, but, which is you start
655
:losing money and then you recover.
656
:and if it's zero, it means you're
making new highs all the time.
657
:So the top of the chart is flat as
long as you're making new highs.
658
:And when you we're looking at trend
following and trend following is, could
659
:you guess how often on a daily basis the
SocGen Trend Index, is making new highs?
660
:Rafael Ortega: I would
say very little, right?
661
:Because I feel it's like you're
losing all the time and then
662
:suddenly you get that big win.
663
:I think what.
664
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, it's like
it's around 12% on a daily scale.
665
:It's around a third on a monthly scale.
666
:And when you look at the chart,
when you actually look at the
667
:S&P500, it is like making new highs.
668
:It feels, I haven't done the
actual numbers, but it just, it's
669
:flat that chart of drawdown and
recovery is flat most of the time.
670
:And then you have 2008 and
you just lo lose and lose and
671
:lose and it's a massive drop.
672
:But you never see that in the
history of the SocGen index.
673
:You never see that lose and lose.
674
:draw downs in recoveries, draw downs in
recoveries, draw downs in recoveries.
675
:and so I think that tracking error
676
:Rafael Ortega: I was asking even you get
it to the same level of volatility, so
677
:it's like it's structurally different.
678
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Is
structurally different.
679
:There is, there's some, like you're
just getting more, it's, look,
680
:it's the skewness of the S&P500,
Then you have the big fat tail.
681
:The moment you start adding
diversification, you add bonds and
682
:equal risk, you add gold and equal
risk, you add some diversifiers,
683
:you now have a more consistent like
series of drawdowns every year, right?
684
:So you'll see your, your, like the area
under the curve for those that remember
685
:statistics, is roughly the same between
a diversified portfolio and the S&P500.
686
:It's actually less, but roughly the same.
687
:The difference is that area under
the curve is showing up every
688
:year more often, and most of the
area under the curve happens in
689
:big abrupt losses for the S&P500.
690
:So the experience here is,
something that is important, right?
691
:The experience is how often do
you feel like you're winning
692
:versus your alternative portfolio,
693
:Rafael Ortega: I think I'm lucky here in
being to communicate this because I've
694
:been talking about the permanent portfolio
for so long, and that is something that
695
:Rodrigo Gordillo: right?
696
:Rafael Ortega: people, I would
say in the investing community
697
:in Spain at least know about.
698
:Even if they don't believe in
it or they don't use it, they
699
:know about it because we've been
talking like for a very long time.
700
:Sort of everyone knows that this
is like an all-terrain solution
701
:and they've seen how it be behaves
just behaves differently, right?
702
:Sometimes it's in a drawdown when
the S&P or in, Europe, most people
703
:use the MSCI world as the reference,
but, stocks are going up and this
704
:might be flat or going down because I
don't know, bonds are down or gold is
705
:down or something else is going on.
706
:So they, they're used to this idea.
707
:And then from the permanent
portfolio to, a return stacked opera
708
:portfolio, which would be like our
most, I, now, I, never say risky.
709
:I'd say it's just the most efficient
portfolio, but, our most efficient
710
:offering would be like a 12%
volatility, portfolio that is a mix
711
:of stocks, bonds, gold, and then
trend carry and other diversifiers
712
:that would be smaller position like
Bitcoin or arbitrage or whatnot.
713
:And so they, they're used to seeing
that this thing is its own thing, right?
714
:the difficulty now is, explaining what
a trend following is, which again, I've
715
:been talking about this for longer, but
maybe carry is something that people
716
:hadn't been introduced to lately,
and starting with a drawdown is never
717
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
718
:It's tough.
719
:Rafael Ortega: but they've seen,
drawdowns in gold and they've seen
720
:drawdowns in long-term bonds, which is
something that, everyone was saying,
721
:like, why do you have long-term
bonds in the permanent portfolio?
722
:Why do you have gold?
723
:So we're used to explaining, having
odd things in the portfolio that
724
:everyone knows that you shouldn't have.
725
:But,
726
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
727
:Everybody knows that you
shouldn't have right now.
728
:Rafael Ortega: Everybody knows.
729
:I've, learned that,
one, two things, right?
730
:Diversification works.
731
:The second would be that, things
happen and then the experts show
732
:up, It's always that way around.
733
:So yeah, never trust the experts.
734
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
735
:I don't understand why you own gold.
736
:It's lost nothing.
737
:It's lost money.
738
:you should have known.
739
:We should.
740
:Let's get out of it.
741
:X post.
742
:Rafael Ortega: the
other way around, right?
743
:Like gold is an all time high.
744
:So
745
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Why
don't we buy more gold?
746
:Rafael Ortega: would you
own 25% on your portfolio?
747
:Or 20% out of 200 even in a off-road
portfolio, obviously you have to.
748
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, and I have,
let's see if I can share this one here.
749
:yeah, this is from the an A
brochure, the All Terrain portfolio.
750
:So we run a couple of model
portfolios, ourselves in the return
751
:stack, website returnstack.com
752
:website.
753
:But this is just an expert of the
simplest all-terrain portfolio.
754
:I think it's levered 150%.
755
:It's basically all world, seven to 10
year treasuries, gold, and the, like
756
:some commodities and a CTA index.
757
:And this is another thing that I,
think we get trapped into is, I
758
:think the nomenclature is clearly
appealing, this idea of all terrain.
759
:But I think what the, what,
it projects is never lose.
760
:And this is an important distinction.
761
:I think you, I think the idea
of saying all-terrain is just
762
:a more efficient portfolio.
763
:You're still in a four by
four going through some rough
764
:terrain and you will fall.
765
:The issue is, are you gonna
get stuck in the ditch?
766
:And we've used a lot of imagery
here on you and me, when talking
767
:about the off-road investor and
all-terrain, and I think the important
768
:thing is it is a four by four.
769
:I think we can get outta most ditches.
770
:you don't want to be driving
a Ferrari in this environment.
771
:And and this just shows.
772
:Rafael Ortega: pot holes, right?
773
:And when you drive through
those, you're gonna feel it.
774
:if you've ever
775
:a four by four, going through a,
offroad path, it's not driving,
776
:a, Tesla to the supermarket.
777
:It's very.
778
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
779
:That's right.
780
:That's right.
781
:And it, really is like when you look
at the year over year here, that the
782
:all-terrain does experience shallower,
annualized losses and less of them.
783
:and you're getting a, the sharpe
ratio of this simple portfolio here is
784
:around 25, 24, sharpe points higher, so
more efficient for every unit of risk
785
:you're getting more units of return.
786
:But in this case, the example
here is to lever it up to the
787
:point where it has the same risk
as a traditional 60 40 portfolio.
788
:So the thing about this small edge
is that over, over time, you see the
789
:value, drawdowns are lower and so
on, but in any given year, you're
790
:like, why are we doing this again?
791
:it seems like we're getting
the same returns, but it's a
792
:lot more complex to understand.
793
:And what I've found is that, where this
really becomes abundantly clear is when a,
794
:an asset class that people are overexposed
to really goes through a, not a two
795
:month or three month, but a significant
series of, years, whether they're flat or
796
:down, where you see the value of all the
other pistons in the motor, doing well.
797
:And it doesn't always
happen that way, right?
798
:Like it, what tends to happen is you have
these shallow losses in gold and recovery,
799
:shallow losses in bonds and recovery,
shallow losses in equities and recovery.
800
:And it just chugs along and
adds a little bit of value.
801
:It's super different.
802
:and then there will be a prolonged
bear market in equities where you see
803
:the all-terrain, especially something
like this, just chug along positively.
804
:And that's when you see the value.
805
:it does take time to see the, long-term
value here and it requires a lot of faith.
806
:And so a lot of education
807
:Rafael Ortega: you have to be careful
with the way you frame that too, because
808
:if we say that, I think I've said
sometimes like the overall portfolio
809
:needs a crisis in order for you to
see, like a big difference, right?
810
:Rodrigo Gordillo: why you have it.
811
:Yeah.
812
:Rafael Ortega: when you say a crisis,
people are gonna think, know, a, a 10%
813
:draw down is a crisis or a 15% draw
814
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
815
:Liberation day draw down.
816
:Yeah.
817
:Rafael Ortega: you need a really
tough scenario to see that huge
818
:difference to appear, right?
819
:Because if not, you just see that it
juggles along at that level of volatility.
820
:And it can be doing that for, I've, run
the back test suit, so, I can see you,
821
:you can get maybe four or five years where
it does the same thing that a equally,
822
:equally volatile stock and bond portfolio.
823
:And so the question there is, why am
I using this expensive, solution that
824
:is so complex when a very simple one
can give you the same, returns, right?
825
:it's because in your backpack,
you have a lot of things there
826
:that you just didn't need.
827
:That doesn't mean that you're not
gonna need them in the future.
828
:Like the sensible thing
is always to be prepared.
829
:You need to be prepared always.
830
:And if we don't get a terrible,
831
:I hope we don't get that
terrible car market right.
832
:we're gonna do okay too.
833
:you, it's not that bad.
834
:but yeah, sometimes I find myself
thinking do I want a, like a
835
:terrible bear market for equities?
836
:So, that, people see the value of this.
837
:but yeah.
838
:Rodrigo Gordillo: No.
839
:that's that.
840
:Yeah.
841
:Don't we all, I, my anecdote to that
is that I was doing this stuff in
842
:'08, and I remember the phases of
emotions, Phase one, OC September, like
843
:Lehman goes down September, October.
844
:I'm feeling so good, right?
845
:I've been talking about
it for a few years.
846
:Portfolios are doing great.
847
:everybody's losing their minds.
848
:Clients don't even know what's,
my clients didn't know it.
849
:Like, why is everybody so worried?
850
:'cause they were looking at portfolios
in different light and, and so the
851
:first was relief and satisfaction.
852
:We want that.
853
:And then you, have January, February, and
advisors aren't showing up to their desks.
854
:Associates are having to talk to
clients that are crying on the phone.
855
:Family and friends are losing their jobs.
856
:And then you're like, crap, I really
need this to turn around right now.
857
:It, is, there is, it is a double-edged
sword to I wanna show the value of this,
858
:and this is important, but also I don't
want to ever have to use those tools.
859
:I hope I never have to show you
what, how important those tools were.
860
:I just need you to trust me
so that when it does happen.
861
:And so by the end of it, I was
just begging for things, to change.
862
:And then when things changed,
then the markets roared 80% and
863
:you're still making 9%, 10% a year,
especially when I was non levered.
864
:So it is, as an all-terrain, provider and,
investor, you go through these emotions.
865
:At the end of the day, it ti it
comes down to does it, is it a sound,
866
:philosophical, fundamental investment
strategy that works over time?
867
:And I, I think it's tough to,
once you take the red pill,
868
:tough, to say no, it doesn't.
869
:and even this year, I'm looking at just
eyeballing the kind of the off-road
870
:portfolio, versus an 80 20, right?
871
:80 20 year to date is up again.
872
:And I had a draw down,
around 13% drawdown.
873
:and, in a recovery, and I'm looking at,
and, an iteration offroad roughly around
874
:the same risk, actually lower risk, down,
less peak to trough and flat for the year.
875
:And they seem identical, but the
reality is that one is a levered
876
:portfolio and the other one isn't.
877
:Right?
878
:And the risk of, hey, it's a
levered portfolio, that's risky.
879
:Again, if you're using defensive leverage.
880
:Not so much, it had a shallow draw down.
881
:It's now back to break even.
882
:And and there were tools in there that
the 60 40 didn't have like gold, right?
883
:That really helped offset a lot of the
losses on the, on the levered side.
884
:And so the question is, what
would've happened if this continued
885
:to go down 20, 30, 40, 50%?
886
:Would they continue to be in tandem
like we saw in this shallow loss?
887
:And history has shown us that no.
888
:It's, very, it becomes a very different
portfolio, in a continuation, but
889
:hopefully we'll never see that.
890
:Hopefully we'll just compete,
like hopefully the ultra
891
:terrain is able to compete.
892
:Hopefully the ultra terrain gives
what people need in terms of what
893
:they care about, which is, am I
gonna have enough returns to make,
894
:my, to pay my bills when I retire?
895
:Or, grow to get a good
retirement nest egg.
896
:But again, if they, if it does happen,
it's important to understand the moving
897
:parts and the value that they add.
898
:If God forbid anything really bad happens.
899
:Rafael Ortega: it's funny 'cause I
was thinking that's exactly what's
900
:taken me now full circle to, okay.
901
:I can't convince everyone to be an
all-weather investor because it, people
902
:are just not built in their mind for that.
903
:They like taking risk.
904
:they believe in stocks and, they're
value investors or they're whatever, I
905
:don't know, they, want stocks and they
want businesses and they believe in
906
:the markets and they're capitalists.
907
:So whatever they, have in their mind.
908
:you still can use, diversification
without sacrificing returns, right?
909
:You couldn't do it before.
910
:You can do it now.
911
:And that's what I was saying, right?
912
:You can add to a hundred percent
portfolio that, a hundred percent
913
:stocks, whatever kind of thing you're
doing, a hundred percent stocks, you can
914
:add some diversifiers on top of that.
915
:And if you do the right amount,
you're not gonna feel the difference
916
:and you're just gonna get that
extra return from the stacking.
917
:So even if you're just looking at
returns, return stacking makes sense.
918
:If you're looking at, maybe
you want a little less risk.
919
:Not concentrate your defense on bonds,
then you can use return stacking to have
920
:a more diversified defense, which is
what I was trying to do before, but now I
921
:think I'm doing it more efficiently again.
922
:add more defense to that
defense that we did.
923
:We didn't do that before with stacking.
924
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
925
:Rafael Ortega: There's so many other ways
to use stacking that when I put myself in
926
:other kind of investors' boots, my mind is
exploding because I just can't understand.
927
:If you know about it,
why wouldn't you do it?
928
:I just don't see a world where in a
couple of decades this the norm, right?
929
:Everyone will use
930
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Where it's
not, where it's not standard of
931
:care for the financial industry.
932
:Rafael Ortega: using 20.
933
:I see that.
934
:if you have a any
version of a 60 40 right?
935
:Like your indexed stock in one portfolio,
you can easily add 10, 15%, stack.
936
:Without affecting your overall risk
and just get some extra returns.
937
:Not like it, will happen eventually.
938
:You're adding things that are,
they make money over time.
939
:we know that not all the time, but
now you can get a diversified set
940
:of things that make money over time.
941
:You put them on top of
your traditional portfolio.
942
:Tracking error is gonna be minimal.
943
:Volatility wise, it's gonna be
almost the same, and you're just
944
:gonna get some extra returns.
945
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
946
:And, but ca and the thing is that, the
caveat to all of that is that, we're
947
:saying it will, but the reality is
that, you look at some diversifiers,
948
:A QR went through a three year period
where their, alpha sleeve just lost
949
:money, and now it's killing it again.
950
:Like it's, it depends on timeframe.
951
:There will be losses,
there's no guarantees.
952
:But, again, these are sound, a
lot of these are very sound ideas.
953
:even if you're a hundred percent equity
investor and you decide to stack some
954
:bonds, the question is, term premium
going to exist in the future if you're
955
:able to stack an extra 1% just by
doing a hundred percent equities?
956
:20% bonds.
957
:Alright.
958
:You're adding diversification.
959
:Do you believe in term premium?
960
:Do you believe that bonds are
gonna make returns above cash?
961
:Especially if you're taking duration risk?
962
:it seems like a reasonable thing.
963
:if
964
:Rafael Ortega: I know, we, we have to,
965
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah,
966
:Rafael Ortega: we have to,
967
:Rodrigo Gordillo: we have to Yeah.
968
:Temper expectations.
969
:Yeah.
970
:Rafael Ortega: I feel like that
stock investors never do this, but
971
:okay, let's temper expectations.
972
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
973
:Let's us do what we.
974
:Rafael Ortega: but, I can see a world
where one of those diversifiers can
975
:fail on you even in the long term, but
the more of them you add on, you know,
976
:the more probable is than, you know
that, than a series of things that have
977
:made money over time in the long term.
978
:If you add them together and you
have a diversified set of them, will
979
:eventually probably make some money
and that will be something that will
980
:be on top of what you are doing right
now and it won't affect your portfolio.
981
:Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
982
:Rafael Ortega: so.
983
:Rodrigo Gordillo: And
I, think you're right.
984
:I think the big unlock for guys like you
and me who both started on the All-Terrain
985
:camp and were like, this is the only way.
986
:when you take that away for a second
and okay, investing is a religion.
987
:Everybody has their own religion
and, their, they're all, they're
988
:value investors, but there's a bunch
of, there's a bunch of like sects
989
:within value investors too, right?
990
:and there's a, there's all
terrain investors in there.
991
:There's a bunch of sects.
992
:So everybody has their own point of view.
993
:The, big unlock here is saying, okay,
let's not try to shove all terrain
994
:down the throat to be down people's
throats, but rather the realization
995
:that, oh, this is just a tool.
996
:And, if we can provide tools for
advisors and investors to apply their own
997
:religion in a much more efficient manner.
998
:Then we should help 'em do that.
999
:And I think we're, we both
later in our careers, have
:
00:59:27,559 --> 00:59:28,819
been like, okay, you know what?
:
00:59:28,819 --> 00:59:32,089
Let's empower the world's population.
:
00:59:32,239 --> 00:59:33,409
You're gonna tackle Europe.
:
00:59:33,769 --> 00:59:38,629
We'll tackle the, anglosphere,
to just do a little bit better.
:
00:59:39,079 --> 00:59:43,909
And I think that's, you're, you
are coming at it now that's what
:
00:59:43,909 --> 00:59:45,469
you're gonna start offering soon.
:
00:59:46,149 --> 00:59:49,869
and, it makes total sense to me,
and I'm actually quite, pumped about
:
00:59:49,869 --> 00:59:53,079
it, from this, how it's gonna work
in, Europe from your perspective.
:
00:59:53,706 --> 00:59:53,926
Rafael Ortega: Yep.
:
00:59:55,119 --> 00:59:55,629
Rodrigo Gordillo: All right.
:
00:59:55,899 --> 00:59:56,919
we covered a lot.
:
00:59:56,919 --> 01:00:00,189
Is there anything that I, that
you think would be useful?
:
01:00:00,189 --> 01:00:01,599
Any parting words?
:
01:00:02,446 --> 01:00:02,566
Rafael Ortega: I.
:
01:00:06,696 --> 01:00:06,936
Yeah.
:
01:00:07,626 --> 01:00:10,896
maybe I, it's more of a question
that I'm asking you, but,
:
01:00:11,679 --> 01:00:11,979
Rodrigo Gordillo: sure.
:
01:00:12,426 --> 01:00:17,406
Rafael Ortega: I'm seeing, more interest
in return stacking portable alpha.
:
01:00:18,096 --> 01:00:22,446
the last couple of months have
been pretty crazy with, lots
:
01:00:22,446 --> 01:00:25,296
of shops opening up new ideas.
:
01:00:26,676 --> 01:00:30,816
I understand there's a, one of the reasons
why this hadn't happened before was, had
:
01:00:30,816 --> 01:00:33,936
to do with, the regulation in the States.
:
01:00:34,710 --> 01:00:39,870
I, we're looking at how this is evolving
in, Europe, but like, how, do you
:
01:00:39,870 --> 01:00:44,550
see, first of all, the landscape in
the States in the rest of the world.
:
01:00:45,318 --> 01:00:45,618
Rodrigo Gordillo: Sure.
:
01:00:45,930 --> 01:00:46,890
Rafael Ortega: things in Canada too.
:
01:00:48,766 --> 01:00:51,256
How do you, see this evolving States.
:
01:00:51,424 --> 01:00:51,904
Rodrigo Gordillo: Sure.
:
01:00:51,964 --> 01:00:52,264
Yeah.
:
01:00:53,746 --> 01:00:56,896
Rafael Ortega: The transition to
other markets like Europe, where,
:
01:00:57,946 --> 01:01:01,426
I've started, as you were saying
before, we, found a way to operate,
:
01:01:01,816 --> 01:01:04,306
but like we've had to go through many.
:
01:01:05,914 --> 01:01:07,504
Rodrigo Gordillo: We're, going
through loopholes right now to
:
01:01:07,504 --> 01:01:10,384
get you the exposure that you
need with your bank, right?
:
01:01:10,894 --> 01:01:17,704
So it's, I think, like anything new,
it's been around for 40 years, right?
:
01:01:17,974 --> 01:01:19,594
I think I've, used this analogy before.
:
01:01:19,594 --> 01:01:24,304
There's a bunch of, for people who don't
wanna die of a heart attack, there's a
:
01:01:24,304 --> 01:01:29,044
bunch of tests that have been approved
and been recommended for doctors
:
01:01:29,044 --> 01:01:31,174
to give their, patients for years.
:
01:01:31,774 --> 01:01:36,064
in order to, assess whether you're
a high risk for heart attack or not,
:
01:01:36,184 --> 01:01:39,034
that are not being done by the vast
majority of doctors, even though
:
01:01:39,034 --> 01:01:40,174
they've been around for 20 years.
:
01:01:40,654 --> 01:01:46,894
And so it requires, in this case and some
experts to bang down the door and say, no,
:
01:01:46,894 --> 01:01:51,154
everybody needs to get their a OB numbers.
:
01:01:51,154 --> 01:01:55,921
And they, everybody needs to get their
lp, sorry, LP little a numbers checked.
:
01:01:55,921 --> 01:01:56,881
And these are things that.
:
01:01:57,481 --> 01:01:59,551
Nobody really knows about today.
:
01:01:59,551 --> 01:02:01,771
They just care about cholesterol,
total cholesterol, even
:
01:02:01,771 --> 01:02:02,701
though it's a good indicator.
:
01:02:02,701 --> 01:02:05,401
But our maximum indicator
it's, it takes decades, right?
:
01:02:05,551 --> 01:02:10,741
And, portable alpha has been around
for 40 years and it's taken a few
:
01:02:11,041 --> 01:02:16,201
people, trying to say the same thing
in different ways and communicate.
:
01:02:16,201 --> 01:02:19,891
And then when it becomes important,
there's a groundswell right now, if
:
01:02:19,891 --> 01:02:23,491
you look at how many times the word
portable alpha has been searched, it's
:
01:02:23,491 --> 01:02:27,211
gone from nothing to, an insane amount
in the last two years, especially.
:
01:02:27,758 --> 01:02:29,648
probably we helped in
a little bit in that.
:
01:02:30,413 --> 01:02:32,723
Now institutions have to pay attention.
:
01:02:33,263 --> 01:02:37,013
Like we know for a fact that
Morningstar is having to think about
:
01:02:37,013 --> 01:02:41,673
a new category that's going to put
all portable alpha people in there.
:
01:02:41,703 --> 01:02:45,033
And then the next question
is who's behind the curve?
:
01:02:45,033 --> 01:02:49,743
And I think the usage structures behind
the curve, they have these weird rules
:
01:02:49,803 --> 01:02:55,893
about, how one can invest in derivatives
and it makes it really difficult and
:
01:02:55,893 --> 01:03:01,293
really expensive to provide the best
possible, stack because of that.
:
01:03:01,293 --> 01:03:07,083
And I'm sure that'll slowly start to
change, because there's going to be too
:
01:03:07,083 --> 01:03:12,723
many people that matter to them, forcing
them to lighten up a little bit, right?
:
01:03:12,723 --> 01:03:13,833
So that groundswells is coming.
:
01:03:13,833 --> 01:03:15,843
People are asking more and more about it.
:
01:03:16,263 --> 01:03:20,793
once a category in Morningstar, exists
and other platforms will have to
:
01:03:21,123 --> 01:03:28,023
think about it as well and categorize,
there's a reticent from existing funds
:
01:03:28,023 --> 01:03:30,963
that have been using portable alpha
from ever to saying the word leverage.
:
01:03:32,463 --> 01:03:33,153
I think these,
:
01:03:33,405 --> 01:03:33,675
Rafael Ortega: I,
:
01:03:34,203 --> 01:03:36,718
Rodrigo Gordillo: yeah,
de-stigmatizing is gonna be huge.
:
01:03:37,005 --> 01:03:38,895
Rafael Ortega: it everywhere.
:
01:03:38,895 --> 01:03:40,330
And I know what it is.
:
01:03:40,340 --> 01:03:40,690
Right?
:
01:03:41,055 --> 01:03:41,745
But before I,
:
01:03:42,218 --> 01:03:42,508
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:03:42,615 --> 01:03:46,965
Rafael Ortega: were not saying
it you can find it, right?
:
01:03:46,965 --> 01:03:49,125
That you'll eventually find, this fund,
:
01:03:49,908 --> 01:03:51,968
Rodrigo Gordillo: and the goal
here is to de-stigmatizing.
:
01:03:52,245 --> 01:03:54,075
Rafael Ortega: to a benchmark, and
then you actually end up finding
:
01:03:54,075 --> 01:03:57,195
out that it's doing stocks plus
something and then that's why
:
01:03:57,645 --> 01:03:58,935
they're getting those returns, right?
:
01:03:59,295 --> 01:03:59,925
So
:
01:04:00,528 --> 01:04:00,818
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:04:01,335 --> 01:04:04,335
Rafael Ortega: I see it everywhere,
but I see people using it and
:
01:04:04,335 --> 01:04:05,925
not saying they're using it.
:
01:04:06,405 --> 01:04:10,845
And again, that going back to what
I said before about being very
:
01:04:10,845 --> 01:04:14,275
transparent on, okay, this is what
we're doing, and we explain it
:
01:04:14,348 --> 01:04:14,638
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:04:14,775 --> 01:04:19,425
Rafael Ortega: that you don't get scared
and, you see it's okay and it works.
:
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:21,900
And, is exactly how works.
:
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:22,260
Think
:
01:04:23,308 --> 01:04:23,598
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:04:23,738 --> 01:04:27,708
And I think a bigger unlock is also
Like anything, portfolio construction
:
01:04:27,708 --> 01:04:31,098
can be anything, portable alpha
can be any sort of iteration.
:
01:04:31,548 --> 01:04:35,178
Keeping it as simple as possible with
the one plus one that, that we've
:
01:04:35,178 --> 01:04:39,498
really focused on talking about Lego
blocks, I think, again, bringing
:
01:04:39,498 --> 01:04:43,128
it down to a level where people can
understand it, understand what they
:
01:04:43,128 --> 01:04:44,418
can put in and what they can take out.
:
01:04:44,808 --> 01:04:51,228
And being upfront about what the
stacks are is the big unlock versus
:
01:04:51,348 --> 01:04:52,938
we just, how do we outperform?
:
01:04:53,118 --> 01:04:54,378
We, just do overlay stuff.
:
01:04:54,408 --> 01:04:55,398
Just trust us.
:
01:04:55,458 --> 01:04:57,858
We're gonna, we're gonna
just do our own thing.
:
01:04:57,858 --> 01:05:02,208
And you just need to, batten down the
hatches and, investing it long term.
:
01:05:02,778 --> 01:05:04,848
We're trying to be like open kimono.
:
01:05:04,998 --> 01:05:06,198
Here's exactly how it works.
:
01:05:06,198 --> 01:05:10,848
You should know and let's really
understand what the risks that
:
01:05:10,848 --> 01:05:13,608
you're taking by using portable
alpha return stacking leverage
:
01:05:13,608 --> 01:05:17,178
are, and dispel some of the myths
and understand some of the risks.
:
01:05:18,678 --> 01:05:22,338
it's gonna be a long, journey to get
brought at auction, but I, like I
:
01:05:22,338 --> 01:05:26,388
said, 40 years from now, I'd be shocked
if everybody's portfolio doesn't
:
01:05:26,388 --> 01:05:27,798
have at least a little bit of this.
:
01:05:27,798 --> 01:05:27,998
That's
:
01:05:28,310 --> 01:05:28,605
Rafael Ortega: see it.
:
01:05:28,605 --> 01:05:28,665
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:05:28,665 --> 01:05:34,575
Rafael Ortega: Hopefully Europe moves
a little faster and I can introduce
:
01:05:34,575 --> 01:05:38,235
things because right now I'm seeing
that I'm always the first person to
:
01:05:38,235 --> 01:05:45,015
ask, or the first person in anything
that is portable alpha esque in Europe.
:
01:05:45,105 --> 01:05:46,005
Now in Canada too.
:
01:05:46,065 --> 01:05:47,595
I think I'm, one of the biggest.
:
01:05:48,003 --> 01:05:48,293
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah.
:
01:05:48,795 --> 01:05:52,365
Rafael Ortega: So I'm, trying to
be there at the forefront of, it,
:
01:05:52,365 --> 01:05:56,670
but really enjoying it because
I think we're very, early and,
:
01:05:57,573 --> 01:06:00,603
Rodrigo Gordillo: Very early and it's
exciting and you see that like when
:
01:06:01,353 --> 01:06:03,603
you put things together and you, I'm
like, oh my God, this is so good.
:
01:06:03,603 --> 01:06:06,723
We just need to give it, we just need
to show it out and give it some time.
:
01:06:07,083 --> 01:06:12,393
And it's always it always, because of the
operational burden of doing something new,
:
01:06:12,393 --> 01:06:15,393
it's always, you're putting things out
two years later than what you want it to.
:
01:06:15,453 --> 01:06:17,883
Like we wrote the paper in
::
01:06:17,883 --> 01:06:19,353
something at the end of::
01:06:20,073 --> 01:06:25,653
Had we done that, the visual obvious
story would immerse, would emerge.
:
01:06:25,743 --> 01:06:29,223
And what's happened is it took
everybody two years to, to let
:
01:06:29,223 --> 01:06:30,243
us do what we needed to do.
:
01:06:30,243 --> 01:06:34,293
And we launched at the teeth of a,
drawdown in some of these stacks, right?
:
01:06:34,983 --> 01:06:38,103
we're just gonna have to muddle
through and keep on telling the story.
:
01:06:38,793 --> 01:06:40,713
And you're a good partner
to have in Europe.
:
01:06:41,475 --> 01:06:41,835
Rafael Ortega: Let's see.
:
01:06:41,835 --> 01:06:42,635
Let's see how it goes.
:
01:06:42,685 --> 01:06:44,305
We'll keep pushing it.
:
01:06:44,955 --> 01:06:47,373
Rodrigo Gordillo: Okay,
Rafa, this has been awesome.
:
01:06:47,613 --> 01:06:48,783
we should do this more often.
:
01:06:48,843 --> 01:06:53,613
Your English is much better than
my Spanish, which is, which is
:
01:06:53,613 --> 01:06:56,673
incredible, for somebody that
hasn't done this in English.
:
01:06:57,513 --> 01:06:58,353
thanks again.
:
01:06:58,353 --> 01:07:02,913
We will, if anybody wants to find
you work and they find you on social
:
01:07:02,913 --> 01:07:04,593
media and on your websites and so on,
:
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:09,570
Rafael Ortega: I'm on Twitter
mostly at Paton, which is,
:
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:14,610
R-I-V-E-R-P-A-T-R-I-M-O-N-I-O.
:
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:18,810
we'll have it down there the links,
:
01:07:19,498 --> 01:07:20,198
Rodrigo Gordillo: in show notes.
:
01:07:20,550 --> 01:07:23,970
Rafael Ortega: and then if you wanna
read about Return Stacking in Spanish,
:
01:07:24,060 --> 01:07:29,470
you can actually find me if you look
for Return Stacked Portfolios.es
:
01:07:29,490 --> 01:07:31,590
that's the Spanish, webpage.
:
01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:37,410
And there we're basically talking about
return stacking and doing, covering all
:
01:07:37,410 --> 01:07:40,650
the, on the stuff that you guys are doing.
:
01:07:41,010 --> 01:07:44,550
Trying to bring it again, the main
difference is that we're looking at
:
01:07:44,550 --> 01:07:46,590
retail investors instead of, advisors.
:
01:07:46,590 --> 01:07:51,540
So that's why I some of ideas.
:
01:07:52,113 --> 01:07:55,353
Rodrigo Gordillo: Yeah, I, would
definitely encourage people to go to
:
01:07:55,353 --> 01:07:59,193
the site and there's a little button
on your Chrome that says translate and
:
01:07:59,193 --> 01:08:04,533
does a pretty good job of just try to
read a few and read it from a different
:
01:08:05,043 --> 01:08:07,506
angle, that, that Rafa is really good at.
:
01:08:07,506 --> 01:08:11,676
So definitely visit the site,
read some of the blog articles
:
01:08:11,676 --> 01:08:12,906
we'll have you on more often.
:
01:08:14,226 --> 01:08:16,236
and, keep doing what you're doing, man.
:
01:08:16,296 --> 01:08:17,166
You're doing God's work.
:
01:08:18,246 --> 01:08:19,236
Thanks for joining today.