Episode 152

full
Published on:

1st Feb 2023

ReSolve Riffs: Andy Constan on Hard vs. Soft Landing, Fed Reaction Function & Higherer for Longerer

This week we welcomed back Andy Constan (CEO / CIO of Damped Spring Advisors) and thought-provoking commentator on financial markets. His deep understanding of the global macro landscape and structure of markets, as always, made for a fascinating conversation that covered:

  • A disciple of two completely different and complimentary schools of global macro excellence
  • Navigating his portfolio in 2022 through the Twitter looking glass
  • Listening between the lines and hearing the drumbeat of quantitative tightening (QT) early on
  • In the old days, understanding inflation and growth was enough for capital allocation
  • The game is now mostly about policymakers’ toolkit, stimuli, and their impact on flows
  • The driving force of equity derivatives and their huge impact in the second half of last year
  • Under normal circumstances, commercial banks account for the lion’s share of money creation and liquidity
  • Issuance, roll-offs, and duration management – the mechanics behind the Fed’s balance sheet
  • Credit and leverage as a function of banks’ ability and willingness to expand their own balance sheets
  • The role of duration in the Fed’s balance sheet activity
  • Why Japan, the original QE trailblazer, was ineffective in its efforts to support asset prices for many years
  • Compression of risk premia, asset inflation, and a weak transmission mechanism towards wealth effects and increased consumption
  • Valuation multiples as the inverse of risk premia
  • Multiples expansion as the primary mechanism for QE-driven asset bubbles
  • Debt monetization as the medium-term bogey on the radar
  • How the Fed relinquished control of QT duration to the Treasury
  • And so much more

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

 

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

 

 

 

Listen for free

Show artwork for Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

About the Podcast

Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast
Welcome to ReSolve Riffs Investment Podcast, hosted by the team at ReSolve Global*, where evidence inspires confidence.
These podcasts will dig deep to uncover investment truths and life hacks you won’t find in the mainstream media, covering topics that appeal to left-brained robots, right-brained poets and everyone in between. In this show we interview deep thinkers in the world of quantitative finance such as Larry Swedroe, Meb Faber and many more, all with the goal of helping you reach excellence. Welcome to the journey.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.