Episode 211

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Published on:

25th Oct 2024

Doomberg - Chips, China & Power Plays: The Big Bets on a Multipolar World

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Doomberg, a popular regular on the show, to discuss a wide range of topics including AI, geopolitics, energy, and the financial markets. They delve into the complexities of the emerging multipolar world, the rise of China in the technology sector, the implications of AI, and the potential risks and nuances within different levels of the capital structure.

Topics Discussed

• The rise of China and its implications for the Western world in terms of semiconductors, high computing, and Quantum computing

• The potential of AI and its transformative impact on professional lives and the world at large

• The geopolitical risks, specifically the Chinese intent on dominating the business landscape

• The unique situation of Taiwan as a major producer of semiconductors and its implications for global supply chains

• The challenges of predicting the decisions of nonlinear systems and the impact of major perturbations on politics, energy, society, and culture

• The role of social media in amplifying voices from the edge of the network and the challenges this presents for lay people and experts alike

• The potential for a breakdown in trust between the population and the government-media-medical nexus

• The impact of the changing energy landscape on the U.S.'s geopolitical world view

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the emerging multipolar world, the role of AI, and the geopolitical shifts in the global landscape. It provides valuable insights into the intricacies of these topics and strategies to navigate the uncertain future.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Transcript
Doomberg:

We are sort of doing a lot with AI in our, sort of, professional lives,

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and know some people who are knee deep

in the, in the thing, and it's pretty

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scary what's going on out there, actually.

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The open source AI is wild, wild

west, zero guardrails, way ahead

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of open AI and really scary.

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That's coming, right?

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You can see what's coming.

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but at the same time, 40

times revenue is rich.

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I don't care what your profit margins are.

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and those margins are a giant prize for

other people to go and, and chip away at.

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And especially when you mix in

geopolitical risks, like the Chinese

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intent on putting everybody out

of business because they will.

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And so we shall see, maybe

this time is different.

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Mike Philbrick: All right, we've

got today with us one of our most

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popular guests that we have on

a regular basis, Doom Nation.

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It's the one and only Doomberg.

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And, uh, Doomie, you have written on

a wide variety of topics, but there's

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lots of interconnectivity in these

topics, so I'd love to get where

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you're seeing the convergence of all

the global forces out there today

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with respect to energy technology.

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The geopolitical tensions, how that all

winds into the demand for energy, the

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demand for energy across the different

dynamics of both AI as well as, you

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know, the geopolitical theaters that

are ongoing, Russia, Ukraine, China,

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Taiwan, the Middle East and Israel.

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So where are you seeing the most

critical pressure points right now?

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And, and how do you think

they're going to influence?

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the global power structures, both

from a political sense, from a

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technological sense, and an energy

sense as we go through the next decade.

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How are you looping this together?

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Doomberg: Well, thanks for the softball

to start, but no, seriously, Mike and

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Adam, it's great to be back with you.

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I always enjoy our conversation,

so I thought I would begin

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by at least expressing that.

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I think if you take a step back

and you do the 10, 000 foot look.

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really going on at its core is sort of

end of American empire, a world dissolving

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into multipolarity, the emergence of

China as a ah peer slash superpower

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on par with or even perhaps even

exceeding the US across some dimensions.

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And leaders of the sort of old western

unipolar order, not quite coming

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to grips with what's going on and

responding in ways that, in our view,

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appear to be accelerating the transition

away from the old, what they would

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call rules based international order.

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And into what Xi Jinping and

Vladimir Putin would call sort of

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a multipolar world of nations, you

know, collaborating and interacting

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in their own best interests.

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And that's the sort of big mega trend and

then what you see all around the world.

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are little flare ups, proxy wars,

indirect confrontations, direct

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confrontations, but they all sort of

lead back to this fundamental axiomatic

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shift that we're seeing in the world.

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And I think 50 years from now when

historians pen what has transpired, in

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this sort of post COVID era, I think the

decline of US omnipresence and dominance

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is probably going to be the lead headline.

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Mike Philbrick: And who, who

comes in for that vacuum in

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the, in this multipolar dynamic?

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Doomberg: Well, that's the great

question of the day, isn't it?

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Um, and, and so, you know, as everybody

ponders how the pieces on the board will

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shift and be played, you, you're seeing

at least for the moment a bifurcation

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between sort of the Atlanticists

Anglo American old, old, old guard and

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those lining up with Russia and China,

the BRICS countries, for example.

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And I think this explains a lot

of the market action in energy,

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which we've written about dozens

of times, and in fact in gold.

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Ah Gold scares me how much it's going up

in a straight vertical line at the moment.

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The weekly chart of gold is

just parabolic, at this point.

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And there's moves afoot that

can at least explain that.

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So, for example, this week in a vastly

under reported story, at least in the

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Western media, the many of the leaders

of the BRICS countries are gathering,

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in Kazan for a meeting hosted by Putin

to, what many believe, roll out an

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alternative, means by which imbalances

in international trade will be settled

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going forward and, and part of the hype,

the hope amongst gold bugs, the belief

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amongst sort of those skeptical of the U.

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S.

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and the old system, is that gold will

play a major role as a neutral reserve

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asset once again in the settlement

of imbalances in international trade.

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And if that were to happen, the theory

And recent price action in the metal might

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seem to be supportive of this theory.

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The theory is that the price of

gold as measured in US dollars needs

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to go much higher, in order for

it to effectively serve that role.

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And in so doing it would replace US

treasuries and some European debt as sort

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of the existing neutral reserve asset.

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And the argument goes that the moment

the West, froze, sanctioned, and,

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and is talking about seizing Russian

reserves, the neutrality of those.

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Assets went out the window and anybody

who has ever been the subject of criticism

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by the US or the Western powers or fears

they might one day be has to take a

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hard look at where they're putting their

excess foreign reserves and Is a U.

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S.

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Treasury bond or bill truly

neutral, in a world where the U.

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S.

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is sanctioning everybody, and

weaponizing its privileged

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position as the holder of the U.

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S., of the global reserve currency?

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And so, if gold is going to be at

the heart of some new system, and

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it remains to be seen, I will be

watching, With bated breath, what

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happens at Kazan like everybody else.

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And I should say, as an owner of an

uncomfortably large amount of gold, I'm

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pondering, whether I need to be hedging

or at least putting in some, some rolling

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stops because things don't go up forever.

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We're all, we've all been in the business

long enough to know what happens in

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the aftermath of such Icarus prints.

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and, and might Kazan be

a sell the news event?

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who knows, but that

that's high on the board.

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And so once you sort of have

that, that grand theory of

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what's going on in the world.

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Certain events become a

little easier to understand.

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It's a good working model

for interpreting the news.

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and we shall see.

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I, I think it's very clear that

we have a bad event in Kazan, and

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then in a bit more of a slow motion

catastrophe, we have NATO on the

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cusp of losing a war against Russia.

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And let's not kid ourselves.

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I mean, this is a war

between NATO and Russia.

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And Russia is winning.

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And how NATO responds to losing

that war is one of the great

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risks on the board going forward.

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And so, lots of different

ways we could take this.

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We've written about it from a

variety of different angles.

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We have an alternative view on the Middle

East that we wrote but didn't publish.

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I'm happy to go over that.

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and of course, the confrontation with

China, which involves intellectual

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property, semiconductors, AI, energy.

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It's all intertwined and so we could pull

on the string any way you guys want to go.

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Adam Butler: Well, why don't we start

with the, Meeting in Kazan, because I

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agree this has been, oddly underreported,

and I think many people are looking

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at this incredible surge in gold after

it kind of broke out above that 2,

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100 per ounce level, earlier this year

after a 12 odd year consolidation,

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and are scratching their heads.

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Do you have any Any further insight

into what the proposed reserve basket

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might look like for this new, I guess

monetary collaboration among those

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who are becoming more fearful of US,

monetary dominance, I guess, or, you

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know, using, using monetary policy.

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Yeah, weaponization.

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Yeah.

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Doomberg: Sure.

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So I should say up front all of our

requests for comment into Vladimir

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Putin have been met with silence We

are we are not connected in any way

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shape or form to anybody that matters

we just read the news and try to

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connect dots like everybody else, but

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Adam Butler: Is Putin leading this though?

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Is he,

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Doomberg: He is yeah, he the the

rotating presidency of the BRICS

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countries is Russia And that's

why he's hosting the meeting.

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And it is a press conference he

gave last week, again, which never

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gets covered in the West, but you,

you can find dark corners of the

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internet to learn about such things.

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And one of the things I, again, before

I dive into this answer, like we read

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propaganda from all the countries, because

if no other reason, it's interesting to

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learn what they're telling themselves.

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and the fact that very few people

read anything other than what, you

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know, they can find in the Western

media is kind of a scary development.

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You can go and read Chinese

readouts from meetings with U.

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S.

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government officials and see what the

Chinese are telling to themselves and

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it's scary sometimes actually like

and so if you do that, you can see

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that in their domestic audiences,

they are already in World War III.

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And that would surprise some people

in the West, but back to the meeting.

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From what we could gather again.

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Just open source and you know

Investigations, there's going to be

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something which is going to be called

the unit which is an odd choice of

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names, but nonetheless it is apparently

going to be a basket of currencies

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of BRICS countries and 40 percent

backed by gold And this will all be

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settled on some form of a blockchain,

a central bank digital currency

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created for and used by central banks.

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and this will be used exclusively

to transact in and amongst the BRICS

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countries and to settle, imbalances,

in those trades as they arise.

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And so if Saudi Arabia is selling

oil to China and Saudi Arabia is

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buying a bunch of Chinese goods with

the proceeds from those sales, they

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have to net out at some imbalance.

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It's pretty rare that you'd land

on the number and presumably this

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new mechanism, which is not a

US dollar, it's not a currency.

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I think this is a source

of a lot of confusion.

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the mechanism for settling such trade

imbalances could in theory involve

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gold as at least a partial neutral

reserve asset in such a construct.

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Now, this is well beyond our expertise.

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It seems a complicated system.

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reports that these countries have

been working on developing such a

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technology and such an implementation

have been out there for years.

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and I think that the, the Ukraine war, has

just accelerated those efforts and we may

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see some kind of a culmination of that.

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Now we wrote up a long shot piece

where we made a prediction that

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maybe Lula in Brazil might derail

the whole thing and we were, keenly

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interested yesterday when news broke

that he has decided he's not going to

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be attending the meeting in person.

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and when we wrote that piece called,

Neighborhood Watch, we caught

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a lot of flack for it actually

because it was pretty speculative.

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but we like to speculate once in

a while, and if this one turns

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out to be true, it could be one

of our better calls of the year.

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But we shall see.

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there was a lot of similar hype

going into the last such meeting in

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South Africa, you may recall, and the

meeting disappointed, at least from

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the perspective of, of the gold bugs.

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And one of our views, and the reason

why we wrote Neighborhood Watch, is it's

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not like the British and the Americans

and their allies haven't been down

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this road before and are completely

out of, tools and weapons they can

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deploy to scuttle the whole thing.

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I wouldn't count them out.

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the trend may be going in one

direction, but that doesn't mean

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it's, permanently in that direction.

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And so this is why when I wake

up and every day gold is up 30 an

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ounce, it makes, makes me a bit

anxious, to be honest with you.

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Adam Butler: Well, did Gold run in advance

of the South African meeting as well.

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Doomberg: I forget, not like

this, to be honest with you.

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I just know that the hype into

that meeting was pretty strong.

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I'd have to go back and check the

chart, but this is unquestionably

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a straight line up, right?

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I mean, you, you're looking

at the same chart I'm seeing.

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I mean, this.

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This run from, I'm just going to pull

it up right now, but this run from

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2600 to 2740 in the past two weeks

has just been vertical and that's

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not

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Adam Butler: it's almost been a straight

line up from, from the:

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May, you know, there was a, there was

a small pause there for a week or two.

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And a lot of the, I think long term gold

bugs who've been burned so many off.

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I love, um, I often quote Don Cox who

said that the best trends emerge in areas

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where those who know it best love at least

because they've been disappointed at most.

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Doomberg: Yeah.

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Adam Butler: And it was interesting

to watch all the long term gold

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bugs express skepticism on this

breakout to all time highs.

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And they were, they were bearish on

this and they were waiting for a major

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pullback, which never really materialized.

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And that, you know, I think a lot

of even the long term gold bugs

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have been caught wrong footed here.

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And it's just amazing to

see, you know, retail hasn't

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really caught onto this trend.

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There's almost no coverage.

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It's just beginning.

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To make it into the mainstream media.

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I know Mohamed El Erian, was out

in a piece either this morning or

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over the weekend about gold and

what this might have to say about

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geopolitics and the monetary system,

the banking system, et cetera.

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But it's just remarkable how little

coverage this has gotten and energy,

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despite this unbelievable move higher.

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Doomberg: Yeah, look,

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Mike Philbrick: one of the, it's one

of the favorite trades you can get to,

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especially when we saw the ETF balances

actually shrinking into the breakout.

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Doomberg: yeah, and

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Adam Butler: I was working on that.

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Doomberg: that's presumably because

central bankers are accumulating and

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And so look, I I'm uncomfortably long.

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My sort of weighted average cost basis

and:

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and during the volatility around the

recent rate cut, I took about 20 percent

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of my position off just to manage risk.

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but I still hold an uncomfortable

amount of gold and I'm pondering

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whether I shouldn't be hedging or

maybe putting in a trailing stop,

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for some portion of the position.

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I'll always have a large position

on because I don't actually view

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Gold as a, as a speculation medium.

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It's more of a savings medium.

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And that's why when your savings vehicles

double in value, you have to ponder what

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it actually means for the U S dollar.

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and that's really my concern because

most of my net worth is tied up

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in U S dollar denominated assets.

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And so I don't want to wake up tomorrow

and see gold at 6, 500 because yes,

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my heads will have paid off, but on

balance, my portfolio will presumably be.

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Much worse off.

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I'll probably be doing better

than my neighbors because as you

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said almost nobody owns gold But

it's still a tricky situation.

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So I'm fortunate in the sense

that I didn't miss the run up But

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when when a position grows like

this on you, you do have to ponder

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risk management at some point

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Adam Butler: So which do I, yeah.

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So which besides the, the BRICS

countries themselves, what

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other countries are lining up?

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In, you know, support of this new

international trade reserve unit.

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Doomberg: Yeah, so there are dozens

of countries applying to join BRICS.

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That's another outcome of this

meeting There's another potential big

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outcome of this meeting that we're

keeping an eye on and that's whether

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China and Russia formally sign up

to build the power of Siberia, too.

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There's all manner of behind the

scenes jockeying going around for

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major, major energy, precious metal

and currency moves that will affect

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things over the next decades.

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And that's why it's a really fascinating

time to watch the news and in our case

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to be privileged enough to be able

to write about it for an audience.

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Um, so there's no shortage of

things for us to write about.

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That's for sure.

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but beyond the BRICS countries, the

gold is being accumulated by people in

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India, by people in China, like citizens.

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and, and if you're in Argentina, for

example, I mean, what are you trusting?

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Are you trusting the peso?

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Are you trusting gold or, or Bitcoin?

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And frankly, I mean, Bitcoin is,

is to some people that the sort of

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modern digital version of Bitcoin.

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At least holding some

attributes comparable to gold.

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not, not for us, but I understand why.

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Intellectually, I understand

why some people feel that way.

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and so, but again, like when you just

see Here's what this reminds me of.

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when we first started writing about

uranium and nuclear in a big way, uranium

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was 30 a pound and, we were, you know,

motivated to do that because our friend,

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Cuppy had a piece on it and the physical

uranium thrust was coming, you know,

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just getting on the scene and uranium

kind of went straight up for a long time.

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Right.

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And then it hit like 107 to 110.

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I forget where it exactly popped out.

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And I didn't have any

uranium at that point.

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Cause I generally don't

like to own things.

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And nobody on the Doober team likes

to own things that we write about.

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The one exception being gold because

we're not affecting the price of gold.

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and uranium sort of topped out and it

felt a bit like an interest print and

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we, we cautioned on a few podcasts

appearances that maybe if you've

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enjoyed this run from 30 to 107.

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maybe you might want to manage

your portfolio a little bit

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and take a bit of risk off.

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And it did have what I would

consider a healthy consolidation.

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And I'm not calling that that's

what's going to happen in gold,

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but it has a very similar feel.

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You know, the FinTwit

crowd is very excited.

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This is it.

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This is the big one.

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I'm seeing all kinds of cup and handle

charts on silver in particular right now.

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Adam Butler: Yep.

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Doomberg: Floating around on on thin

twit Our friend Tony Grier was out with

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an interesting call this morning that

you know He has no position or view on

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silver and he's more than happy to just

watch it You know as he said sit in the

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stands with a beer a pretzel at no view

And so we'll we shall see I mean silver

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in particular is kind of like natural gas.

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It's the devil's trait I mean lots of

people lose lots of money Trying to

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time entries and exits into silver.

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So it's not what we typically do.

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but, there's a lot of, well, compared to

the crickets and the empty cemetery that

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gold and gold bugs have been experiencing

for a decade, it's natural to look

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at even the small amount of coverage

it's getting now with great caution,

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because we're just not used to it.

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As you say,

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Adam Butler: Yeah.

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So do you think just to close the loop

on this part of the discussion, do you

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think that China and Russia both need to

sign on to this new unit for it to have

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any chance of being a successful venture?

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Doomberg: I think, as many

countries as possible need to

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sign on and sign on quickly.

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And then it gets a momentum of its own.

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And so I do think that this

is a critical week for it.

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I think if for whatever reason,

the party is sort of slowed, then I

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think it could be fatal in our view.

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This is a, about as good a time as

any for Putin to make this gambit and

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for Xi Jinping to make this gambit.

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The NATO is on its back foot.

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elections all over the

West are leaning right.

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we have a pretty important election

in the U S here in the next two weeks.

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Um, I watched with interest the results

from Moldova overnight, which I'm sure

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you guys were paying very close attention

to, but, it was a fascinating Set of

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results and accusations and so on.

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And so it feels like the time is now

if not now when but but again We shall

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see we are sort of informed speculators

sitting on the outside of this trying

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to make sense of what's going on

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Mike Philbrick: So this is, this

is sort of the, just to, just to

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bring it around when we were talking

earlier about the sort of multipolar

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dynamic that is sort of emerging.

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This is a key part of that.

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Doomberg: Yes, it is the the key part of

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Mike Philbrick: correct.

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I just want to, for the viewers, I

want them to understand that this

349

:

is what you mean by that earlier on.

350

:

Doomberg: Here's the history.

351

:

Here's some history for you.

352

:

Okay, Putin and China have been

openly declaring this since

353

:

the global financial crisis.

354

:

I mean our friend Luke Roman who

writes the force for the trees and

355

:

tree rings really great provocative

newsletter comes out once a week.

356

:

he's been highlighting this speech

given by the head of the Chinese

357

:

Central Bank in the aftermath of

global financial crisis calling for

358

:

this exact series of developments.

359

:

What happened next?

360

:

Putin dumped all of his treasuries in

the aftermath of the Crimea invasion

361

:

and and the scuffle in Georgia.

362

:

dumped all his treasuries, and he

just assumed that, you know, Europe

363

:

would never, anything to his mostly

Euro denominated reserves because they

364

:

required, Russia for their energy needs.

365

:

In fact, the entire German industrial

national business model is predicated

366

:

on access to cheap, reliable natural

gas and oil and products from Russia.

367

:

So he, in his wildest dreams,

never imagined, that, His Euro

368

:

reserves would be sanctioned by

the Europeans over the Donbass.

369

:

And I think the reaction to what he calls

the special military operation and what

370

:

we in the West have been calling the

war in Ukraine, I think surprised him.

371

:

and probably surprised the Chinese and

probably surprised Modi and the Indians.

372

:

And so I think that the sanctioning

of those reserves, which shocked

373

:

everybody, frankly shocked us.

374

:

I mean, we wrote a piece, I believe it

was called on the cusp of an economic

375

:

singularity in the weeks afterwards.

376

:

And then we've been saying that the

sanctions, won't work and are designed

377

:

to backfire from the very beginning.

378

:

but Putin saw what Europe has done and

everyone else saw what Europe is doing

379

:

and how the war was being spun over here

versus the way it was being spun in their

380

:

own countries and everybody reads history

through their own lens of propaganda,

381

:

and I think this has been the catalyst,

the catalyst, so that the war in Ukraine,

382

:

again, which the Russians call Special

Military Operation, the SMO, if you will,

383

:

that's going to be the seminal event

that if, you know, there is a shift.

384

:

In the U.

385

:

S.

386

:

financial system's role in global trade,

it will have been both the incursion into

387

:

Ukraine and the West's reaction to it

that will be seen as the pivotal moment.

388

:

And this meeting will, if it does

produce what we're speculating it

389

:

might, will be viewed as a natural

culmination of a decade plus worth of

390

:

work and history that has evolved in the

aftermath of the global financial crisis.

391

:

Adam Butler: So how do you anticipate

the US and I guess to a more limited

392

:

level of importance the EU and

Britain, should Putin be successful

393

:

in bringing this venture about?

394

:

Doomberg: Well, it's an

interesting question.

395

:

Europe in particular

is in the hurt locker.

396

:

They have become the victims, the

primary victims, outside of Ukraine.

397

:

Of course, let's not confuse ourselves.

398

:

The biggest, the biggest victims in all

this are the people of Ukraine and the

399

:

country of Ukraine, which is heading for

a very, very challenging and potentially

400

:

terrible winter, we should say.

401

:

setting Ukraine to one side, if you look

at the US, China, Russia and Europe,

402

:

the biggest loser by far is Europe.

403

:

it has largely done the bidding of

the US and paid all the price for it,

404

:

while the US has basically benefited

economically by supplying the continent

405

:

with relatively expensive energy, and,

and that has been exchanged for the cheap

406

:

energy that Europe had built its entire

business model on, Germany in particular.

407

:

And so, if you just look at Germany,

I mean, they, they they've been

408

:

severed from energy, their industry

is uncompetitive, and even the auto

409

:

sector is moving to China, right?

410

:

And so if the molecules get rerouted to

China too, which is why I mentioned the

411

:

power of Siberia too earlier, because

that takes molecules that had been

412

:

going and were intended to keep going

to Europe and reroutes them permanently

413

:

to China, then they've lost their

molecules and they've lost their industry.

414

:

Both of which have gone to China.

415

:

and the only truly sort of economic

beneficiary of all this is, is

416

:

the US, but Great Britain and

Europe are energy vassals now.

417

:

And we suspect that the European

union is probably not going to

418

:

survive in its current state.

419

:

this is a rather unnatural

state for Europe.

420

:

Europe is a collection of nations

that normally don't get along with

421

:

each other all that well, which

is why there's been so many wars

422

:

on that continent over the years.

423

:

And to assume that you can

just impose this sort of super

424

:

bureaucracy out of Brussels.

425

:

on all of these nations with

centuries of history and

426

:

culture was always a challenge.

427

:

And now Europe seems to be

breaking apart at the seams.

428

:

We're seeing country after country,

what the traditional media are

429

:

calling, you know, far right parties

gaining a plurality of the vote,

430

:

but being denied any parliamentary,

benefits that would normally come

431

:

with being the leading party.

432

:

Party to receive the votes.

433

:

They're pro in the in the name of

saving democracy We see an awful lot of

434

:

undemocratic things being done to parties

that are popular and look Populism in

435

:

its name is a reaction to unpopular

policies And if you don't want the rise

436

:

of quote unquote far right parties,

then maybe you should govern better.

437

:

I think it is perfectly normal That

populations who suffer the consequences,

438

:

because it is the average person

that suffers consequences of bad

439

:

geopolitical and economic decisions,

not the elite, it is perfectly

440

:

predictable, that they would revolt.

441

:

And I think Brexit, the first election of

Donald Trump, these are all consequences

442

:

of what we would call a crisis of

confidence among Western leaders.

443

:

Adam Butler: So, in the, in the context

of a Europe who has largely made all the

444

:

sacrifices, To impose these penalties

against Russia, and relied on the

445

:

friendly, cooperative support of the U.

446

:

S.

447

:

in taking this stance.

448

:

How would you view, or how do you

think that Europe would view a Trump

449

:

presidency versus a Harris presidency

given, I think, Trump's pretty clear

450

:

message that he wants to take a less

outwardly collaborative, perspective

451

:

with both, you know, less friendly and

historically more friendly trade blocks.

452

:

Doomberg: I think they're in complete

and total panic at the prospect of

453

:

Trump presidency, at least the current

batch of leaders who are clinging

454

:

to power across the European Union.

455

:

I think Donald Trump, much like

too many on the left in the U.

456

:

S., is their worst nightmare.

457

:

because he will have a very

narrow window of opportunity

458

:

to, to reset everything, right?

459

:

now he, he happens to have a pretty

naive view as to his ability to do so, to

460

:

quote, end the war on day one, I think.

461

:

That's more election talk.

462

:

And I think the reality of governing

is always more challenging than

463

:

the ease with which you can

critique the existing leadership.

464

:

which is why we'd like to say,

you know, be careful to not be

465

:

the dog that catches the car.

466

:

So what are you going to do after that?

467

:

Like, I think the fatal mistake that

was made by Biden and, Van der Leyen

468

:

and Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau

and the whole batch of Western leaders

469

:

was, once again, as It seems like we

are intent on proving to ourselves

470

:

every 50 years or so, although it's

been a little longer this time.

471

:

the Russian society, its military

industrial complex, its technical

472

:

prowess, and its unity were

radically underestimated by the West.

473

:

They thought this would be quick,

that there would be a regime change.

474

:

I remember listening with some horror

as analysts that people respect and

475

:

are widely listened to were proclaiming

that Russia was a technological paper

476

:

tiger and that the pullout of Western

energy service providers would lead

477

:

to a collapse in their production

of energy and so on and so on.

478

:

This was all nonsense.

479

:

Anybody who has competed with

Russians, worked with Russians, hired

480

:

Russians understands that whatever

you think of Putin, the country of

481

:

Russia itself has enormous resources,

has enormous industrial potential,

482

:

and has a history of being invaded.

483

:

And so one thing the Russians have

figured out how to do is to march

484

:

from east to west and carpet bomb

towns and villages along the way.

485

:

I think we should have learned

this lesson by now, right?

486

:

And we're seeing it happen in Ukraine.

487

:

By the way, very serious war crimes,

I believe, being, we believe,

488

:

being committed in the process,

like the The specific targeting

489

:

of the Ukrainian electricity

grid, in our view, is a war crime.

490

:

And, they've knocked out some two thirds

of that grid and stand ready to knock out

491

:

the rest of it just as winter unfolds.

492

:

The only logical reason that one

would do that is to create a migration

493

:

crisis to make the country unlivable.

494

:

and that's likely going to succeed

and, and it's dastardly and all of

495

:

those things, but it's the reality.

496

:

One of the reasons you don't get

into wars is you might lose them.

497

:

Mike Philbrick: Yeah, do do me, I'm

wondering on, on the idea of a Trump,

498

:

Trump presidency, some of what the,

you know, western leaders have done.

499

:

you know, cutting Russia off and then

sort of empowering its sale of its

500

:

hydrocarbons through back channels

at higher prices has empowered them.

501

:

I just wonder if, if a, a Trump

win and a drill baby drill.

502

:

isn't one way to undermine that power

dynamic that exists sort of in that

503

:

Russia Iran multi polarity production

partnership with the, you know,

504

:

sort of the China India side of it.

505

:

Doomberg: we, we have, we have

been making this case from the very

506

:

beginning, as you might recall.

507

:

I'm sure we've talked about it

in my, my prior appearances.

508

:

As we said, we have a sort of

counterintuitive view of the

509

:

consequences of the upcoming US election.

510

:

If Trump wins, that is very bullish

for supply, which means deeply

511

:

bearish for price and deeply

bearish for energy equities.

512

:

The reverse is also true.

513

:

A Harris win means more

EPA, which in a way, the U.

514

:

S.

515

:

regulatory regime acts as a police and

a disciplinarian to the energy sector in

516

:

ways it never seems able to do on its own.

517

:

So a Harris win is bearish for

supply, which is bullish for

518

:

price and bullish for equities.

519

:

And so you have this perverse situation

where I'm, I'm sure just based on

520

:

all of my contacts, 95 to a hundred

percent of industry executives in the

521

:

energy sector are going to be voting

for Trump and they're not voting their

522

:

pocketbooks because Trump is going to be

very bad for their their stock prices.

523

:

Now, you've hit on the exact point.

524

:

drill baby drill is and has always been

the only effective way to starve Putin's

525

:

war machine of the funds needed to win.

526

:

And all of the sanctions have done

nothing but increase the friction

527

:

costs associated with Trump.

528

:

And that means he gets to transact at

a higher price than he otherwise would.

529

:

The sanctions were designed to backfire.

530

:

We wrote about this two years

ago, two and a half years ago now,

531

:

in a piece called Crazy Pills.

532

:

Where we're like, we were screaming

from the roof that this is

533

:

going to fail and it has failed.

534

:

That Brent is still at 75 dollars

a barrel right now, is criminal.

535

:

if the US and European leaders had any

sense, Of how commodity markets actually

536

:

worked We would have done what James

Baker did ahead of the Gulf War which

537

:

is you go around the world and back then

people still took the US Secretary of

538

:

State seriously and you lean on all of

your allies to produce produce produce

539

:

produce It doesn't take much in the way

of excess supply for prices to crater If

540

:

we had got prices down to below Putin's

break even production costs what do you

541

:

think would have happened to their economy

542

:

Mike Philbrick: now we're talking.

543

:

Doomberg: and this is

what we needed to do now?

544

:

Look energy bulls don't like that.

545

:

Exxon Mobil doesn't like that.

546

:

but if you're truly playing a bit of a

longer game, this was the way forward.

547

:

in a way, in a way, Biden proved

it when he released 1 million

548

:

barrels a day from the Strategic

Petroleum Reserve for 6 months.

549

:

That was 1 percent of daily supply.

550

:

It cut the price of oil in half.

551

:

Okay, what does 2 percent

of daily supply do?

552

:

What does 3 percent of daily supply do?

553

:

You get oil back to 30 a barrel and

we are looking at a very different

554

:

geopolitical chessboard right now.

555

:

Adam Butler: What does it say about the,

the relationship between the US and,

556

:

and, the Saudis, that the Saudis haven't,

turned on their taps more aggressively in

557

:

support of, What would be an obvious U.

558

:

S.

559

:

objective?

560

:

Doomberg: we didn't give

them enough carats to do it.

561

:

I mean, clearly, they didn't.

562

:

In fact, you know, we're old enough

to remember that In the weeks after

563

:

COVID 19 became a thing, Russia and

Saudi Arabia engaged in a price war.

564

:

And one of the reasons why oil went

negative was in part because the

565

:

Saudis were flooding the world with

supply just as demand was shrinking.

566

:

Because of the lockdowns and the

economic shocks that followed

567

:

the spread of the pandemic.

568

:

And so it's not like Russia

and Saudi Arabia that Putin

569

:

and MBS are natural bedfellows.

570

:

Like this is not a natural relationship.

571

:

It is a sort of once the U.

572

:

S.

573

:

sanctioned those reserves, I think that

kind of spooked the Saudis and drove

574

:

them closer to the BRICS position.

575

:

And they've applied now.

576

:

to join the BRICS.

577

:

So have we lost Saudi Arabia?

578

:

Who knows?

579

:

God knows the domestic political situation

in Saudi Arabia is beyond our zone of

580

:

expertise and what's going on in the

back channels between, you know, the

581

:

US and Saudi Arabia again, who knows?

582

:

History will tell us what was

really going on 15 years from now

583

:

when we're allowed to read it.

584

:

But, but yeah, like we're not doing it.

585

:

Like again, the fact that Brent is at

75 is a condemnation of the sanctions

586

:

regime and one of the things we

haven't talked about, I mentioned

587

:

earlier, it calls into question the

broad competence of those that are

588

:

currently leading the Western world.

589

:

They didn't get it right on energy.

590

:

They didn't get it right on Putin's

political stability on the domestic front.

591

:

They certainly catastrophically got

it wrong on Russia's ability to, keep

592

:

its commodities flowing, to increase

its war machine, to build weapons at

593

:

a rate that is lapping all of NATO.

594

:

Like how much really important stuff

do you need to get wrong before you

595

:

ponder the accountability question

596

:

Adam Butler: So do me, this, this is,

this actually leads to what I think

597

:

is maybe the most important question.

598

:

and it's a, it's a tricky one and I don't.

599

:

I suspect you've given it some thought,

but I don't necessarily expect you to

600

:

have all the answers, but what is it about

the frameworks that the current breed of

601

:

Western leaders who are, as you described,

sort of clinging to power and have been

602

:

in power largely over the last kind of,

call it 30 to 40 years, what What is it

603

:

about the frameworks they're using that

has led them to make so many what seem

604

:

obvious errors, and maybe they're more

obvious errors a little bit in retrospect,

605

:

but then there doesn't seem to be the

kind of recalibration that you'd expect

606

:

once observing a series of errors either.

607

:

What is it about their frame of reference

that makes it very difficult for them

608

:

to adapt and learn from these mistakes?

609

:

Yeah, that's a great question, I

have given it some thought and

610

:

I have a bit of an off-the-wall

hypothesis of what may be going on.

611

:

Much of the foreign policy establishment

612

:

Doomberg: And veterans that

make it up, especially in the U.

613

:

S., came of age during a time

where peak cheap oil or peak

614

:

oil, Hubbert's Peak, was dogma.

615

:

These people were convinced that the U.

616

:

S.

617

:

was Was dramatically short oil and natural

gas to a lesser extent and this framed the

618

:

geopolitical worldview, which is why we

cut the deal with the Saudis in the 70s.

619

:

you know, and everything

that happened after that.

620

:

And I think what's going on is the current

set of leaders have failed to internalize

621

:

the consequences of the shale revolution.

622

:

We no longer need to worry about going

around the world to secure access to oil.

623

:

to oil and commodities and other products.

624

:

We're the world's global energy giga

power, and we're not acting like it.

625

:

the Middle East actually doesn't matter

to us anymore in the way that it did

626

:

when we were deeply short oil and gas.

627

:

I think the shale breakthrough and

the meaning of it has not been fully

628

:

internalized by the current leaders.

629

:

And they have not changed their

worldview to accommodate a fundamental

630

:

change in assumption that the technical

revolution that is shale has brought.

631

:

Now, concurrent with that, there's

an entire complex that has grown

632

:

wealthy on foreign adventures.

633

:

people call it the military

industrial complex.

634

:

We spend 900 billion a year

in the U S alone and where it

635

:

all goes is a great mystery.

636

:

find me the last major conflict.

637

:

Okay.

638

:

Where things ended well, as a

consequence of those adventures,

639

:

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine.

640

:

Now, you forget about Libya, but

you know, a lot of, wreckage left

641

:

in the wake of these adventures.

642

:

And we like to say, and have written

under our masthead that when you're

643

:

in the bomb making business, this

is a working capital problem.

644

:

And so you have these trends.

645

:

It was this.

646

:

Need to secure energy supplies.

647

:

Like there's some great

books to describe all this.

648

:

One of them is called The Pipeline Wars.

649

:

It's a fascinating book.

650

:

We quoted it in one of our earlier pieces.

651

:

That's changed.

652

:

Like we're swimming in hydrocarbons now.

653

:

I'm old enough to remember when

Freeport LNG was going to be an import

654

:

terminal as late as 2014, I believe.

655

:

The fact that we are drowning in

cheap hydrocarbons has not, you know,

656

:

percolated up to the highs of senior

decision making in Washington, D.

657

:

C.

658

:

or, or in Europe, and Europe's

not drowning in hydrocarbons, so

659

:

why would they have that view?

660

:

But the U.

661

:

S.

662

:

certainly is, and we need to worry less.

663

:

In fact, we've advocated.

664

:

If we just go back to the Monroe Doctrine,

planning in the western hemisphere

665

:

to keep us busy for a very long time.

666

:

Venezuela is sitting on the largest

hydrocarbon deposits in the world,

667

:

and it's a, it's a broken country.

668

:

Argentina, the, the, Yaca Verta,

I've got, I've reversed names, but

669

:

the, the large shale deposit in

Argentina, Yaca Verta, is capable of

670

:

producing an enormous amount of oil.

671

:

We, we, we read one expert analysis

that if all of the infrastructure was

672

:

there, that field could handle five to

six million barrels a day of production.

673

:

It won't get there, but it could.

674

:

It's huge.

675

:

It's on par with the Permian.

676

:

plenty of oil.

677

:

Look at British Columbia, Alberta.

678

:

I mean, we're drowning in

natural gas on the British

679

:

Columbia side of that formation.

680

:

So, the, the, one of the most fundamental

pieces on the board has changed, but our

681

:

geopolitical worldview really hasn't.

682

:

Mike Philbrick: So that, that framing is

just, it's the old adage of, you know,

683

:

they had to take, I don't know what it

was, 10 seconds between mortar rounds,

684

:

and that was to steady the horses.

685

:

We've abandoned horses a long

time ago in a military construct.

686

:

So it is, those old time

habits are hard to shake.

687

:

I wonder if we, so we've talked a little

bit about the developing multipolar world,

688

:

that the Russia's and Iran's supplying

the China's and India's, of usage.

689

:

sort of like we have in the West with,

with Europe being a user and, and, America

690

:

and American allies being producers.

691

:

Can we maybe switch to how that's

trickling down in other areas, maybe

692

:

heading to the world of technology,

chips, AI, or is there anything

693

:

else, Adam, you want to cover on this

particular, vein of conversation?

694

:

Adam Butler: I think we'll cover

it as we discuss the other themes.

695

:

Doomberg: so concurrent with this

battle over polarity is the rise of

696

:

China and one of the things that the

US is deeply concerned about is that

697

:

the Western world loses its edge

in semiconductors, high computing,

698

:

and Quantum computing and so on.

699

:

And this is a sector where the U.

700

:

S.

701

:

is indeed a superpower.

702

:

But as we have been chronicling, China is

very, very good when it puts its entire

703

:

national interest to work at stealing,

bribing, blackmailing their way to

704

:

whatever technologies the CCP declares

are in the country's strategic interest.

705

:

And there is no technology more in

the strategic interest of China today

706

:

than Then semiconductor technology,

even more so than energy because

707

:

they've largely worked that out.

708

:

You know, they have access to

reasonable supplies from a basket

709

:

of suppliers across the entire

array of primary energy sources.

710

:

But just by an enormous inventory of

coal and the ability to bring more

711

:

coal power online, they're doing an

all the above energy strategy, which

712

:

is the right thing to do when you're

fundamentally short one of them.

713

:

In this case, they're short

oil, solving those problems.

714

:

And so now they're turning their attention

to semiconductors and we're seeing a truly

715

:

incredible arms race, in that sector.

716

:

It's long been our view that

the Chinese are going to win.

717

:

we've seen this movie before and directly

experienced it in multiple industries.

718

:

one of the great examples of this

is, how the Chinese are just gonna

719

:

take over the global auto industry.

720

:

BYD in particular is

just an amazing company.

721

:

amazing in a sort of agnostic sense.

722

:

Not in a praising sense, but I'm, I

remember seeing what we would call the,

723

:

the Frankenstein mobile at an auto show

in China, which was, BYD's complete and

724

:

total knockoff of the Toyota Corolla.

725

:

It was literally a, a total rip off

with different parts on their hood,

726

:

ripped off from other, manufacturers.

727

:

But, and this made it very easy for

people to not take BYD seriously, right?

728

:

But one of the things we've written about

is when you're allowed to take and cherry

729

:

pick the very best technology developed

by your competitors over the decades.

730

:

And skip the time and resources

needed to develop such a suite

731

:

of technologies on your own.

732

:

You have a huge advantage.

733

:

And today BYD produces a car that

is a plug in hybrid electric.

734

:

And if you start with a full tank of

gasoline and a fully charged battery, you

735

:

can go 2000 kilometers before you have

to charge up either of them for 14, 000.

736

:

GM and Ford and Volkswagen are cooked.

737

:

Like these companies are

capitalized to compete globally.

738

:

And the Global South, the

BRICS countries, are going to

739

:

happily buy this car from BYD.

740

:

and they're going to win and the

Chinese stole that from under, you know,

741

:

well in plain sight, they stole it.

742

:

They forced all of the major OEMs to

create joint ventures and then, you

743

:

know, called all the technologies

from those JVs and suddenly a wholly

744

:

owned, national champion comes out

of nowhere and dominates the market.

745

:

And we're going to see the same

thing in, in semiconductors.

746

:

We watch with great interest.

747

:

the recent, inadvertent early

release of earnings from ASML.

748

:

because this, this was a, we

had written about this company

749

:

about 10 days prior to that.

750

:

And so whenever something we've written

about hits the news, it's always a

751

:

high pucker factor moment for us.

752

:

Cause like, did we get it right?

753

:

Or did we get it wrong?

754

:

Right?

755

:

in this case, I think

we largely got it right.

756

:

One of the interpretations, again,

we like to challenge narratives and

757

:

think outside of the proverbial box,

so to speak, is that China stopped

758

:

ordering from ASML because they

figured out how to steal the technology

759

:

and they don't need them anymore.

760

:

And if that's the case, there's an awful

lot of companies with very rich valuations

761

:

that are about to fall off a cliff.

762

:

Adam Butler: so I think.

763

:

Can you go a little bit

more deeply into that?

764

:

Because.

765

:

I think this may be, a market

shattering revelation, given the

766

:

disproportionate size of market cap

that is, allocated to the sector that

767

:

you're describing that is ripe for

disintermediation by Chinese competition.

768

:

Doomberg: Yeah, so I want to tread

carefully because we're not calling

769

:

for that, but this certainly has,

it, it, it rhymes with things

770

:

we've seen in the past, right?

771

:

So ASML, what do they do?

772

:

They make lithography machines, and

essentially they have a monopoly on

773

:

that, and their biggest customers are

in Taiwan, and lithography machines

774

:

are critical to the production of most

semiconductor chips that we use today,

775

:

and in particular the high end ones

absolutely need ASML's technology.

776

:

The U.

777

:

S.

778

:

has been trying to inhibit China's

ability to get the best machines that

779

:

ASML has to offer, and as part of that

sanctions policy, which again reminds

780

:

us of the futile efforts that we saw

in the Russia energy situation, China

781

:

reacted to those sanctions in two ways.

782

:

One, they bought as much from

ASML as ASML would sell them.

783

:

Basically, anything that wasn't

specifically on the sanctions list

784

:

was pre ordered, which is why ASML's

shares have skyrocketed, and separately,

785

:

they embarked on a massive national

campaign to make ASML redundant to them.

786

:

ASML enjoyed huge growth in sales.

787

:

In fact, in the second quarter

of this year, China was 49

788

:

percent of their revenue.

789

:

Up from 10 to 20%, just

a couple of years before.

790

:

that's dangerous, right?

791

:

That's a concentration of risk.

792

:

And then suddenly in this, recent

accidental release of their Q3 numbers,

793

:

we learn that their order book, which

was expected to come in at between 5.

794

:

5 and 6 billion, was closer

to 2 billion and change.

795

:

Well, if that order book is half

China, what does that tell you?

796

:

Tells you the Chinese are

not really ordering anymore.

797

:

And if the Chinese aren't ordering

anymore, what does that tell you?

798

:

and it should be noted that, as we

quoted in our piece, I believe the

799

:

piece, the title of the piece where

we wrote about this was called Going

800

:

Dutch, because ASML is a Dutch company.

801

:

I think the social preview

for that piece was in the chip

802

:

war between the US and China.

803

:

The Netherlands struggles

to split the bill.

804

:

and so, we, we pointed out

that I believe it wasn't:

805

:

It was revealed that a senior

technical employee walked out of ASML,

806

:

presumably with a thumb drive full of

their secrets and escaped into China.

807

:

We've seen this before.

808

:

This is what the Chinese do, right?

809

:

So if they're in possession of all

the machines they need, and then

810

:

some to keep things going now, And

plenty of spare machines for them to

811

:

do a complete and total breakdown on.

812

:

Then it's only a matter of time

before they get around the problem.

813

:

The Chinese have a history of doing this.

814

:

and next thing you know, we're going to

wake up to a headline where the Chinese

815

:

no longer need, you know, the Taiwanese

or the Dutch or the American designs or

816

:

the chips that come from the combination

of those three things, because they're

817

:

going to have done it on their own.

818

:

And, ASML was happy to take that revenue.

819

:

Stock was skyrocketing.

820

:

And, and now we see what happens.

821

:

Now, if this does happen, as you

say, there's trillions in market

822

:

cap predicated on the current market

darlings, not only having a moat,

823

:

but keeping it for a very long time.

824

:

And to the extent that that assumption

isn't true, it doesn't mean those

825

:

stocks are going to go down now.

826

:

It doesn't mean they're not going

to keep going up for a while.

827

:

But the long term situation, the

equilibrium state is pretty clear.

828

:

Adam Butler: Well, yeah, and they're

priced as though they're going to

829

:

maintain this unassailable moat and

these, just outrageous profit margins

830

:

as far as the eye can see, right?

831

:

For decades in the future?

832

:

Doomberg: I don't know how else you

can justify how every 1 move in NVIDIA

833

:

stock is 25 billion of market cap.

834

:

Adam Butler: yeah.

835

:

Doomberg: it's pretty amazing.

836

:

Seems to be, look, we've said this

before, we don't trade stocks.

837

:

So like, don't, don't listen to Doomberg

for stock trading advice, but two

838

:

things can be true simultaneously.

839

:

AI is incredibly transformative,

a much bigger deal than even the

840

:

internet was in the dot com era.

841

:

And we could be in a giant AI bubble.

842

:

Adam Butler: Yep.

843

:

I've been saying the same thing.

844

:

Doomberg: I think both

of those things are true.

845

:

we are sort of doing a lot with AI in

our sort of professional lives and,

846

:

know some people who are knee deep in

the, in the thing, and it's pretty scary

847

:

what's going on out there, actually.

848

:

The open source AI is wild, wild

west, zero guardrails, way ahead

849

:

of open AI and really scary.

850

:

That's coming, right?

851

:

You can see what's coming.

852

:

but at the same time, 40

times revenue is rich.

853

:

I don't care what your profit margins are.

854

:

and those margins are a giant prize for

other people to go and, and chip away at.

855

:

And especially when you mix in

geopolitical risks, like the Chinese

856

:

intent on putting everybody out

of business because they will.

857

:

and so we shall see, maybe

this time is different.

858

:

but then you mix on top of that, the

piece we released over the weekend about

859

:

Taiwan's energy situation and things

860

:

Mike Philbrick: Right.

861

:

Doomberg: scary.

862

:

Mike Philbrick: Well, how

does that relate to Taiwan?

863

:

Is it, does it make it less key

of a position given that China is

864

:

going to recreate it on the mainland

865

:

or?

866

:

Doomberg: of course.

867

:

Yeah, certainly.

868

:

Look, Taiwan today produces two thirds of

all of the semiconductors and more than

869

:

90 percent of the most important ones.

870

:

That's a monopoly.

871

:

Where I come from, I mean, that's

the definition of a monopoly, right?

872

:

You have pretty good pricing power.

873

:

You're also really, really

important to the market.

874

:

And as we said in the piece, you know,

like Taiwan imports 98 percent of its

875

:

energy and it all comes in on a boat.

876

:

And what are the Chinese doing?

877

:

Maritime exercises to simulate a blockade.

878

:

Why would they be doing that?

879

:

Certainly not if they needed the chips.

880

:

Mike Philbrick: So that's a slightly

different take than, than I, so yes, I

881

:

Doomberg: we, we like to

generate slightly different takes

882

:

Mike Philbrick: Yes.

883

:

Now that even, even reading it, I

didn't quite come to that take so that

884

:

the, expertise is being developed in

mainland so that it is not impacted

885

:

as much by, the potential conflict

with Taiwan and the conflict that

886

:

would arise with the West there, their

supply chain would be recreated on

887

:

Doomberg: exactly.

888

:

And so, so like the main victim

of that blockade is the U.

889

:

S.

890

:

and Europe,

891

:

Mike Philbrick: Yeah.

892

:

Doomberg: not China and Russia.

893

:

Because if China has its

own homegrown industry,

894

:

Mike Philbrick: Mm hmm.

895

:

Doomberg: all across the supply chains,

they are proactively building inventory,

896

:

both in raw commodities, products,

but also in domestic expertise, right?

897

:

and so this is what really scares us.

898

:

So if, when we saw, so again, you know,

even paranoids have enemies, right?

899

:

So I'm willing to admit that, maybe

we're, we're seeing ghosts here, but

900

:

when you see China running a very

comprehensive blockade practice, you

901

:

see technology escape from ASML in 2023.

902

:

You see this massive pre buying

from an ASML by the Chinese.

903

:

You see telephones being produced

that are shocking people in the West

904

:

because of their sophistication.

905

:

And then we see a sudden drop

in orders, presumably from

906

:

China, in ASML's future books.

907

:

What do you see?

908

:

I mean, I, I see, I see a pattern.

909

:

Mike Philbrick: Yeah.

910

:

Adam Butler: Well, there's two, I guess

there's two potential explanations,

911

:

and both can be true as well.

912

:

But, I mean, one is that they've reverse

engineered 2 to 3 nanometer lithography

913

:

and have figured out how to mass produce

these, these machines that will allow

914

:

them to build the latest chips at scale.

915

:

and they need neither ASML nor TSMC.

916

:

or they've made the decision that

they're going to go after Taiwan

917

:

and, I guess, just capture the

supply that they need militarily.

918

:

Doomberg: Yeah but then you risk

things like kill switches and so

919

:

on right, so who knows umm I would

argue in, in the piece we wrote, we

920

:

talked about the, the Formosa potential

campaign, and ultimately why the U.

921

:

S.

922

:

decided not to invade what was then known

as Formosa, which we now know as Taiwan.

923

:

It's a difficult place to invade.

924

:

very high cliffs, you know,

that's a pretty long distance

925

:

to cross, with an armada without

being sighted by the defenses.

926

:

You know, like, I don't think anybody

is saying that China can effortlessly

927

:

invade Taiwan, without consequences,

but it's, it's not clear to us

928

:

that those plants would survive.

929

:

And most importantly, the sort of

hidden magic, which we know from our

930

:

time in industry and having supplied

this sector, the real magic is in the

931

:

technologists and the technicians.

932

:

It's not actually in.

933

:

It's the people that are doing the

work, which is why it's been so hard,

934

:

for example, to get these facilities

up and running outside of Taiwan,

935

:

because they have a nationwide

dedicated strategy to grow and develop

936

:

brilliant technicians dedicated to

this space who do the actual work.

937

:

Much of it is indistinguishable from

magic, trade secrets, fine tuning, like

938

:

these are highly sensitive machines.

939

:

And it's the technologists and

the technicians and whether

940

:

they would be motivated to

work or still be alive, right?

941

:

I mean in the case of a total war

that could cause significant problems.

942

:

So I don't think the Chinese

are necessarily interested

943

:

in grabbing the foundries.

944

:

But they certainly would be limited

in what they could do until they

945

:

have become self sufficient in that,

at a minimum, but we shall see.

946

:

but this is how we view it, right?

947

:

When, when we see those combination of

things, it, it sort of triggers our Spidey

948

:

sense, so to speak, as, as to a movie

we've seen play out in, admittedly far

949

:

less important industries than this one.

950

:

But the, the, the tools and

the tactics are very similar.

951

:

Adam Butler: Lets talk about, you did,

you mentioned, AI I've been neck deep

952

:

in, in AI, mostly LLMs and, and to a

much lesser extent, generative visual

953

:

models, like Sora and Flux and stuff.

954

:

You mentioned that open source progress.

955

:

is now making leaps ahead of, for

example, OpenAI's latest models.

956

:

What are you seeing there?

957

:

And then maybe expand on some of

the, I think you sort of alluded

958

:

to some scary potentialities there.

959

:

So, so what are you seeing in the

open source space and what should

960

:

make people concerned about that?

961

:

Doomberg: Yeah.

962

:

So when I say zero guardrails,

I mean, zero guardrails.

963

:

And you know, both the LLMs have

become very powerful, but also the

964

:

visual stuff has become less and less

distinguishable from authentically human.

965

:

And when you combine all of those

things, it's very easy to make

966

:

deepfakes, the full range of them, from

disgusting to, financially devastating.

967

:

And We have a friend who works in

the space, and we've been dabbling

968

:

with the technology, mostly because

we're in, we have a media business

969

:

now, and, this person is capable of

leveraging nothing but off the shelf,

970

:

open source technologies of creating

you, Adam, your voice, your likeness.

971

:

And speaking with almost perfect,

you know, your mannerisms to,

972

:

to, to like fool people that it's

actually you, that exists now.

973

:

And, and we're seeing all kinds

of fraud, like, people calling

974

:

children of people calling their

parents, but it's actually AI.

975

:

And they're getting like

money sent to the wrong bank.

976

:

You know, there's all manner of

dastardly things that could be done.

977

:

it campaigns.

978

:

When you watch a video on

Twitter, now you have to be.

979

:

wary of no matter how real

it looks, is it truly real?

980

:

Like how, what is the test?

981

:

as we're blurring the definition

between human and machine, is

982

:

there a test for authenticity?,

983

:

I would argue we're, the

window on that is closing.

984

:

And so like any technology, nuclear

power for example, in the wrong hands,

985

:

it can be used for terrible things.

986

:

And in well controlled hands, it

could be a source of limitless

987

:

clean energy for decades.

988

:

And there is legitimate, real risk to

our current way of life that is happening

989

:

online in the dark corners of the web that

would freak people out if they saw it.

990

:

Cause from what I've seen, it's freaked

me out and I don't go looking for

991

:

the worst of it, I can assure you.

992

:

Adam Butler: can you give a

couple of examples or even one,

993

:

Doomberg: Well, if I can make your

likeness, I could catch you on film doing

994

:

all manner of things that could be used

against you for blackmail, for example.

995

:

and if enough people see it.

996

:

Not many people stick around

for the footnotes, right?

997

:

And once that image is embedded

in people's minds, you're

998

:

stealing this person's identity

in the most visceral way.

999

:

And you could make them do anything, Adam.

:

00:58:26,226 --> 00:58:27,376

I mean, anything.

:

00:58:28,096 --> 00:58:30,116

Think Hunter's laptop, right?

:

00:58:30,486 --> 00:58:31,966

Like, that could be created.

:

00:58:32,436 --> 00:58:35,536

Indistinguishable from reality today.

:

00:58:35,666 --> 00:58:41,006

A bad actor looking to destroy Mike's

reputation has a lot more tools at

:

00:58:41,006 --> 00:58:42,516

their disposal than they did a year ago.

:

00:58:43,429 --> 00:58:46,099

Adam Butler: well, they'd have trouble

destroying Mike's reputation because.

:

00:58:47,254 --> 00:58:48,524

Doomberg: It's hard to

get lower than zero,

:

00:58:48,664 --> 00:58:51,574

Adam Butler: There's, there's,

there's, there are very few things

:

00:58:51,574 --> 00:58:53,444

that we don't have Mike doing live

:

00:58:53,599 --> 00:58:53,849

Mike Philbrick: Yeah.

:

00:58:53,989 --> 00:58:54,519

Seen it.

:

00:58:54,619 --> 00:58:55,099

Seen it.

:

00:58:55,189 --> 00:58:55,719

Seen it.

:

00:58:55,904 --> 00:58:56,194

Adam Butler: Yeah.

:

00:58:57,824 --> 00:59:00,664

Doomberg: but in all seriousness, like,

I don't know if you think about like if

:

00:59:01,181 --> 00:59:06,338

a bad actor wanted to destroy a political

candidate, far easier to do that now.

:

00:59:07,348 --> 00:59:13,818

Adam Butler: I think too, what also is,

has gone under the radar is the real time

:

00:59:13,818 --> 00:59:22,218

speech APIs, where it's not just that

you can create a video that goes viral.

:

00:59:23,173 --> 00:59:31,653

But you can have a Zoom video call with

a live avatar that is completely that

:

00:59:31,683 --> 00:59:39,263

the speech behind it is a language model,

and you've got a real time generative AI

:

00:59:39,263 --> 00:59:43,173

video model that is moving the avatar.

:

00:59:43,488 --> 00:59:47,578

Doomberg: is exactly what I was referring

to, like, when, when, if you get a

:

00:59:47,578 --> 00:59:50,208

call from your adult child at college.

:

00:59:50,933 --> 00:59:54,383

And it's a FaceTime call, and

it's actually not that person,

:

00:59:54,383 --> 00:59:57,243

and they're asking you to do

something, send money or whatever.

:

00:59:57,763 --> 00:59:59,983

it, you can see how this would be abused.

:

01:00:00,263 --> 01:00:01,283

and it's really challenging.

:

01:00:01,283 --> 01:00:03,673

You know, I read an interesting

article, I think it was in the

:

01:00:03,673 --> 01:00:08,043

Financial Times, about how teachers are

struggling to catch students because

:

01:00:08,043 --> 01:00:11,293

the AI detection algorithms often get

things wrong, and people are falsely

:

01:00:11,303 --> 01:00:12,813

accused, and how do you handle that?

:

01:00:12,833 --> 01:00:17,223

And it's, it's really gonna

mess things up in a big way.

:

01:00:17,563 --> 01:00:20,233

But the part that's freaky is

there's just no stopping it.

:

01:00:20,303 --> 01:00:22,263

Like, there is no guardrails.

:

01:00:22,933 --> 01:00:23,533

It's out there.

:

01:00:23,633 --> 01:00:30,973

You can build these things at no cost, in

record time, and people are building them.

:

01:00:32,053 --> 01:00:32,493

Like,

:

01:00:33,223 --> 01:00:34,293

Mike Philbrick: The doors wide open.

:

01:00:34,293 --> 01:00:34,393

The

:

01:00:34,393 --> 01:00:34,893

barns empty.

:

01:00:34,913 --> 01:00:35,293

Doomberg: open.

:

01:00:35,413 --> 01:00:40,413

And God knows that the current

batch of regulatory leaders are

:

01:00:40,673 --> 01:00:42,543

wholly ill equipped to handle this.

:

01:00:43,298 --> 01:00:50,578

The talk about we're just now

beginning to ponder the barn door and

:

01:00:50,578 --> 01:00:53,701

that horse is like long gone, right?

:

01:00:54,031 --> 01:00:55,521

It's scary.

:

01:00:55,726 --> 01:00:57,296

Mike Philbrick: Was there,

was there even a barn?

:

01:00:57,756 --> 01:00:59,196

They didn't even have a

chance to build a barn.

:

01:00:59,346 --> 01:00:59,566

It's

:

01:00:59,711 --> 01:01:02,731

Doomberg: right I mean, it's just and the

horses are already procreating and there's

:

01:01:02,731 --> 01:01:08,671

like a whole herd of them now like it it's

it's it's scary and I one of the things

:

01:01:09,139 --> 01:01:11,359

That sort of allows me to stay sane.

:

01:01:11,369 --> 01:01:13,389

There's just nothing I can do about it.

:

01:01:14,459 --> 01:01:16,909

So you just brace for impact

with everybody else, right?

:

01:01:16,939 --> 01:01:17,359

If it's a,

:

01:01:17,849 --> 01:01:19,759

Mike Philbrick: Hopelessness

is such a comforting thing.

:

01:01:20,189 --> 01:01:22,869

Doomberg: well, if it's a problem

for everybody, it's not, it's

:

01:01:22,869 --> 01:01:25,799

not a unique problem to me, And

:

01:01:25,814 --> 01:01:28,364

Adam Butler: Well, it's really a

continuation of what we've been

:

01:01:28,364 --> 01:01:34,754

seeing over the last 5 to 10 years,

which is just a pollution of the,

:

01:01:34,864 --> 01:01:37,114

of the information commons, right?

:

01:01:37,144 --> 01:01:39,714

Like it's, it was mostly text.

:

01:01:40,504 --> 01:01:45,724

pollution, and more recently

it's been audio pollution.

:

01:01:45,754 --> 01:01:51,454

And now we're moving into the

audio video real time interactive

:

01:01:51,698 --> 01:01:53,818

pollution domain, right?

:

01:01:53,928 --> 01:01:57,658

so, I mean, we weren't able

to get our heads around how

:

01:01:57,658 --> 01:01:59,528

to regulate it or manage it.

:

01:02:00,393 --> 01:02:08,763

When it was just text and you know now

we've gone from text to speech to AV We're

:

01:02:08,763 --> 01:02:15,263

in three dimensions now four arguably

in time and You know, we're we're just

:

01:02:15,273 --> 01:02:16,703

getting further and further behind.

:

01:02:16,703 --> 01:02:23,503

I agree It's almost certain we won't

be able to regulate or manage it How

:

01:02:23,503 --> 01:02:29,583

do you envision the next three to five

years playing out from a political?

:

01:02:30,353 --> 01:02:32,263

and social perspective

:

01:02:32,263 --> 01:02:33,561

Doomberg: It's going to be incredibly

challenging and the one thing that

:

01:02:33,561 --> 01:02:36,753

is very difficult to do is predict

the decisions of nonlinear systems

:

01:02:36,753 --> 01:02:40,343

and we are effectively predict

with precision nonlinear systems.

:

01:02:41,103 --> 01:02:47,543

And we are y running a giant experiment

in a complex non-linear system with

:

01:02:47,543 --> 01:02:51,469

a major perturbation coming and

how this manifests politically,

:

01:02:51,529 --> 01:02:58,733

energetically, socially, culturally

is profound in the same way that, you

:

01:02:58,733 --> 01:03:00,083

know, the iPhone changed the world.

:

01:03:00,153 --> 01:03:03,613

I mean, it's cliche to say it now, but

I, I, I didn't grow up with an iPhone.

:

01:03:04,393 --> 01:03:07,623

I didn't grow up with a universal

information machine in my

:

01:03:07,623 --> 01:03:11,053

pocket, effortlessly telling

me everything I need to know.

:

01:03:11,053 --> 01:03:17,223

Now equipped with, you know, AI powered

search apps that with amazing precision

:

01:03:17,223 --> 01:03:20,383

and almost no hallucination tell me

everything I need to know in seconds.

:

01:03:21,118 --> 01:03:22,818

that this is, this is staggering.

:

01:03:23,398 --> 01:03:27,118

one way to model the world, which

we have written about, is to assume

:

01:03:27,788 --> 01:03:32,918

that society will do whatever it

takes to organize itself in a way

:

01:03:32,968 --> 01:03:37,058

which ensures that it stays on this

exponentially growing Kurzweilian

:

01:03:37,058 --> 01:03:38,758

curve of supercomputing power growth.

:

01:03:39,388 --> 01:03:41,718

And that model has worked very well.

:

01:03:41,818 --> 01:03:43,508

Betting against it has

been a fool's trade.

:

01:03:43,873 --> 01:03:47,303

And if you do that and we circle it

all the way back to energy, you get

:

01:03:47,303 --> 01:03:51,513

back to, how AI might predictably

impact energy, assuming everything

:

01:03:51,513 --> 01:03:53,883

else remains reasonably solid.

:

01:03:53,933 --> 01:03:56,753

and by the way, I should note

as we're talking, gold just

:

01:03:56,753 --> 01:03:57,923

dropped 20 bucks an ounce.

:

01:03:58,033 --> 01:04:00,223

who knows on what headline,

but man, I hate being right.

:

01:04:01,173 --> 01:04:01,513

Anyway,

:

01:04:01,913 --> 01:04:02,083

I

:

01:04:02,143 --> 01:04:02,423

don't want

:

01:04:02,433 --> 01:04:02,703

Mike Philbrick: Right.

:

01:04:02,703 --> 01:04:03,203

And long.

:

01:04:03,313 --> 01:04:07,403

Doomberg: off, but I'm watching

gold dump 20 in five minutes, and,

:

01:04:07,453 --> 01:04:08,623

wondering what's going on in the world.

:

01:04:11,863 --> 01:04:14,823

Mike Philbrick: I mean, we have

been on for over an hour and it

:

01:04:14,856 --> 01:04:16,266

is, is this an appropriate time?

:

01:04:16,276 --> 01:04:18,726

We haven't had a chance to

talk about nuclear much, but,

:

01:04:19,156 --> 01:04:20,166

Doomberg: keep going if you guys have the

:

01:04:20,226 --> 01:04:21,786

Adam Butler: Yeah, I've got tons of more

:

01:04:22,346 --> 01:04:23,601

Mike Philbrick: I just

want just to check in.

:

01:04:24,156 --> 01:04:24,996

Adam Butler: yeah, yeah, all good.

:

01:04:25,126 --> 01:04:34,426

so if, if what you posit plays out, which

I agree, I think is a likely trajectory, I

:

01:04:34,426 --> 01:04:41,416

mean, do we need to get to Kardashev level

2 energy production in order, you know, in

:

01:04:41,416 --> 01:04:43,796

short order, in order to facilitate that?

:

01:04:44,596 --> 01:04:49,156

Doomberg: I think the biggest victim

of AI is this net zero nonsense.

:

01:04:49,779 --> 01:04:50,689

That's going to go out the window.

:

01:04:51,199 --> 01:04:55,739

I mean, and I think, as we have been

saying all along, the human endeavor

:

01:04:55,739 --> 01:04:58,549

is a constant, unrelenting struggle

against the forces of entropy.

:

01:04:59,219 --> 01:05:01,979

your standard of living is defined by

how much energy you get to harvest and

:

01:05:01,979 --> 01:05:07,189

all humans everywhere want a higher

standard of living and AI for all of its

:

01:05:07,509 --> 01:05:13,306

threats and flaws and the fears we may

have surrounding those threats and flaws

:

01:05:13,676 --> 01:05:20,964

is a smashingly impactful, powerful tool

for progress towards the human endeavor.

:

01:05:21,754 --> 01:05:26,124

And, we are going to extract

the energy needed to keep us

:

01:05:26,144 --> 01:05:27,634

on that Kerswellian curve.

:

01:05:28,374 --> 01:05:34,374

and the two biggest winners from the

trade are nuclear in the long term and

:

01:05:34,374 --> 01:05:38,244

natural gas in the medium term, and

we could talk about why and the timing

:

01:05:38,244 --> 01:05:40,254

of those two, why we hold those views.

:

01:05:40,494 --> 01:05:43,913

And the biggest loser is, is the

climate change hysteria, because,

:

01:05:43,994 --> 01:05:45,154

big tech isn't going to care.

:

01:05:45,704 --> 01:05:50,064

and, and we predicted

that COP 28 was peak ESG.

:

01:05:50,754 --> 01:05:56,444

And I think the lack of turnout headed

towards COP 29, ostensibly under the

:

01:05:56,444 --> 01:06:00,484

reason that it's difficult to get

there, is further proof of that, but

:

01:06:00,484 --> 01:06:03,854

the biggest winners will be nuclear

and natural gas, and the biggest

:

01:06:03,854 --> 01:06:05,684

losers will be the carbon counters.

:

01:06:05,754 --> 01:06:06,163

Sharon

:

01:06:07,529 --> 01:06:09,339

Adam Butler: I think you guys

have covered the whole thing.

:

01:06:10,663 --> 01:06:15,634

Nuclear natural gas in in other

in a previous conversation, right?

:

01:06:15,634 --> 01:06:21,474

So I want to point, current listeners

to previous episodes with Doomberg,

:

01:06:21,634 --> 01:06:23,994

for great in depth coverage of that.

:

01:06:26,334 --> 01:06:30,984

I want to pull on a, maybe a higher

level abstraction thread here, which is.

:

01:06:32,359 --> 01:06:37,329

One of the, one of the challenges

that we are facing at the moment to

:

01:06:37,799 --> 01:06:43,479

perhaps the greatest extent in, in

a century is consensus building and,

:

01:06:44,123 --> 01:06:46,073

you know, global cooperative gameplay,

:

01:06:48,366 --> 01:06:55,633

how, and one of the symptoms of

that is a loss of faith in the

:

01:06:55,633 --> 01:06:57,083

institutions of decision making.

:

01:06:58,076 --> 01:07:01,266

maybe talk a little bit about some

of the things you've written on that

:

01:07:01,266 --> 01:07:05,006

theme, what you're, what you're maybe

currently writing about that theme

:

01:07:05,036 --> 01:07:13,693

and what the impact of this inability

to build consensus and build global

:

01:07:13,733 --> 01:07:19,306

cooperative frameworks might be on our

ability to solve these big challenges.

:

01:07:19,386 --> 01:07:22,617

So,

:

01:07:22,681 --> 01:07:24,301

Doomberg: we publish it, because

sometimes we write pieces

:

01:07:24,301 --> 01:07:25,501

that we decide not to publish.

:

01:07:25,771 --> 01:07:27,861

Someday we might publish a

collection of the pieces we

:

01:07:27,861 --> 01:07:29,401

never published, just for fun.

:

01:07:30,413 --> 01:07:34,354

We're writing a piece on ivermectin, and

that whole nexus of science and media,

:

01:07:34,614 --> 01:07:40,771

and how the sort of media medical nexus

has lost half the country, basically.

:

01:07:41,121 --> 01:07:42,031

Conservatives in the U.

:

01:07:42,031 --> 01:07:42,461

S.

:

01:07:42,866 --> 01:07:43,866

don't believe the media.

:

01:07:44,336 --> 01:07:47,226

They don't believe the

scientific establishment.

:

01:07:47,226 --> 01:07:50,026

This is why, by the way, when we

write pieces like Scientists Say,

:

01:07:50,356 --> 01:07:55,506

we bemoan the knee jerk response of

Hurricane Helene is proof of climate

:

01:07:55,506 --> 01:07:58,946

change, because that just drives that

half of the country to not believe

:

01:07:58,946 --> 01:08:01,653

anything the media says about science.

:

01:08:02,258 --> 01:08:04,988

As it pertains to the

particularities of AI, though,

:

01:08:04,988 --> 01:08:06,528

we do see one major difference.

:

01:08:07,478 --> 01:08:10,888

The technology companies control

social media, and therefore have

:

01:08:10,888 --> 01:08:12,598

enormous power to shape beliefs.

:

01:08:12,818 --> 01:08:15,448

And conservatives are generally

pro energy development.

:

01:08:16,077 --> 01:08:20,411

So that one will be an easier sort

of piece to move on the board, to

:

01:08:20,411 --> 01:08:22,731

normalize the use of natural gas.

:

01:08:23,111 --> 01:08:28,180

To power data centers in the Permian, for

example, or we see Microsoft reopening

:

01:08:28,661 --> 01:08:33,661

Three Mile Island, shocking the sort

of old school Malthusians who thought

:

01:08:33,661 --> 01:08:35,470

they had won the war on nuclear power.

:

01:08:36,201 --> 01:08:40,941

So I do think that the

move to use abundant U.

:

01:08:40,941 --> 01:08:41,081

S.

:

01:08:41,111 --> 01:08:43,131

energy to power data

centers to keep the U.

:

01:08:43,131 --> 01:08:43,401

S.

:

01:08:43,451 --> 01:08:48,736

on the cutting edge of technological

development in a quote unquote war

:

01:08:48,736 --> 01:08:54,145

with China will be widely well received

and that'll be an easier thing for the

:

01:08:54,145 --> 01:08:57,946

technology companies to sell and they

will pay off all the environmental

:

01:08:57,946 --> 01:09:01,136

groups they need to in order to get

them to quiet down about clean burning

:

01:09:01,136 --> 01:09:06,622

natural gas and carbon free nuclear,

but your broader question about the

:

01:09:06,622 --> 01:09:14,046

breakdown in trust between roughly

half the population and The government

:

01:09:14,056 --> 01:09:17,486

media medical sort of nexus is real.

:

01:09:17,845 --> 01:09:18,546

It's important.

:

01:09:18,595 --> 01:09:24,296

It's what we're going to write

about whatever side of that debate

:

01:09:24,296 --> 01:09:29,296

you find yourself on, its existence

is undeniable, and the impact of

:

01:09:29,345 --> 01:09:33,166

its existence is also profound,

and so we need to recognize that.

:

01:09:33,206 --> 01:09:37,466

And I think ivermectin is an

incredible story, now that time

:

01:09:37,466 --> 01:09:40,416

has passed and you could do a sober

assessment of what actually went down.

:

01:09:40,956 --> 01:09:44,156

It's a truly incredible story

to view that lens through.

:

01:09:44,156 --> 01:09:44,676

We'll see.

:

01:09:44,916 --> 01:09:48,725

Generally when you publish on red

button issues like this, you tend

:

01:09:48,725 --> 01:09:51,776

to trigger people no matter how

carefully you write your piece or how

:

01:09:51,776 --> 01:09:53,296

balanced you try to be in your prose.

:

01:09:53,626 --> 01:09:57,706

One of the things we like to say here is

that we're more than happy to defend what

:

01:09:57,706 --> 01:10:00,586

we wrote, but not what you think you read.

:

01:10:00,926 --> 01:10:05,506

People project all manner of meaning

onto words that were clearly not there

:

01:10:05,506 --> 01:10:06,886

and certainly not intended to be there.

:

01:10:06,886 --> 01:10:10,186

And this is one of those topics

where we do have to tread carefully.

:

01:10:10,616 --> 01:10:15,191

people are very emotional about such

topics, and when we write about something

:

01:10:15,191 --> 01:10:16,931

that people are emotional about.

:

01:10:17,416 --> 01:10:19,266

we, we do have to tread carefully.

:

01:10:19,366 --> 01:10:21,736

it's just one of those constraints

of the business, right?

:

01:10:22,196 --> 01:10:25,966

Adam Butler: Well, it's a, it's a

good example of this phenomenon that

:

01:10:25,966 --> 01:10:33,366

I've been contemplating, which is

almost by definition, novel ideas or,

:

01:10:33,386 --> 01:10:39,019

or new perspectives in a field have

to come from outside of the existing

:

01:10:39,469 --> 01:10:41,879

canon or the, you know, the, the,

:

01:10:42,949 --> 01:10:46,099

um, Yeah, right.

:

01:10:46,099 --> 01:10:48,749

The outsiders to the establishment

of that field, right?

:

01:10:48,759 --> 01:10:54,936

So this raises a fundamental challenge

and that's that social media, for

:

01:10:54,936 --> 01:10:57,196

example, gives voice to those.

:

01:10:57,736 --> 01:11:00,646

at the edges of the network,

which prior to social media

:

01:11:01,306 --> 01:11:03,999

were never really given voice.

:

01:11:03,999 --> 01:11:08,499

In fact, you might argue that the

algorithms that drive social media

:

01:11:08,702 --> 01:11:16,599

engagement serve to amplify the edges

to orders of magnitude greater degree

:

01:11:16,619 --> 01:11:23,044

than might be warranted by Merits

of the ideas that that come from

:

01:11:23,044 --> 01:11:30,111

the edges relative to the center of

the cannon in those domains, right?

:

01:11:30,761 --> 01:11:33,931

Doomberg: Yeah, that's certainly true

on Twitter of all of the platforms.

:

01:11:33,971 --> 01:11:34,711

That's for sure.

:

01:11:35,301 --> 01:11:37,851

A different thumb on the

scale, for TikTok, but go

:

01:11:37,851 --> 01:11:38,821

ahead and finish your question.

:

01:11:38,821 --> 01:11:39,091

Sorry.

:

01:11:39,551 --> 01:11:40,051

Adam Butler: Yeah, it's good.

:

01:11:40,311 --> 01:11:45,421

It's just that there are vastly more

biased or just like poorly formed ideas

:

01:11:45,441 --> 01:11:50,731

at the edges of the network than there

are truly novel or, you know, genuinely

:

01:11:51,611 --> 01:11:56,131

truthful or revolutionary perspectives

that kind of get you closer to the truth.

:

01:11:56,711 --> 01:12:01,561

So how are lay people, you know, which

are most people in general, but also

:

01:12:01,651 --> 01:12:05,788

even experts who are, who are trying to

make decisions on topics outside of their

:

01:12:05,788 --> 01:12:12,577

field of expertise supposed to, Make

decisions or, or gain an understanding

:

01:12:12,608 --> 01:12:19,191

of the world, given the, the vast

number of messages that are now being

:

01:12:19,191 --> 01:12:20,591

propagated from the edge of the network.

:

01:12:20,601 --> 01:12:28,561

Like a really near term example is I

saw yesterday a tweet from someone that

:

01:12:28,571 --> 01:12:30,561

had gotten well over 2 million views.

:

01:12:31,491 --> 01:12:37,851

Making the case that mammograms cause

breast cancer and advocating for women

:

01:12:37,871 --> 01:12:39,471

to stop getting mammograms, right?

:

01:12:40,021 --> 01:12:44,171

This is like one of the most,

went absolutely everywhere.

:

01:12:44,711 --> 01:12:51,661

I mean, this is a clearly extremely

harmful message to propagate that's

:

01:12:51,671 --> 01:12:53,151

getting an enormous amount of attention.

:

01:12:53,371 --> 01:12:57,661

Just one narrow example of

a broader general category.

:

01:12:58,191 --> 01:13:01,211

How do we navigate an information

environment like this?

:

01:13:01,866 --> 01:13:05,216

Where people are, we have informed

citizens who are able to check

:

01:13:05,226 --> 01:13:07,796

government, check institutions.

:

01:13:08,441 --> 01:13:11,221

Doomberg: So, I don't know

how everyone else does it.

:

01:13:12,121 --> 01:13:13,111

I'll explain to you how we do it.

:

01:13:14,001 --> 01:13:16,901

And recognizing that we're a bit

unique in the sense that our job

:

01:13:16,901 --> 01:13:18,381

is to be on the internet all day.

:

01:13:19,711 --> 01:13:24,451

To connect dots of signal and

noise and information in unique

:

01:13:24,451 --> 01:13:25,551

ways that make people think.

:

01:13:26,211 --> 01:13:31,151

For a relatively, intelligent

audience that is paying to be there.

:

01:13:31,711 --> 01:13:35,401

And so, we're not typical in that regard.

:

01:13:35,961 --> 01:13:38,371

it's literally our job to

try our best to do that.

:

01:13:38,381 --> 01:13:42,391

And that's why sometimes we write things

that annoy our subscriber base because

:

01:13:42,391 --> 01:13:43,961

they're living in a different ecosystem.

:

01:13:43,961 --> 01:13:47,021

And we have a different view of things

after having explored it thoroughly.

:

01:13:48,429 --> 01:13:51,439

There are certain tactics that you

can use as you consume information.

:

01:13:52,579 --> 01:13:57,609

One is to wildly broaden information

you're willing to consume.

:

01:13:58,529 --> 01:14:04,589

We read English language news and

opinion pieces from Iran, from China,

:

01:14:04,729 --> 01:14:09,129

from Russia, from Ukraine, from

Britain, from Brazil, from Argentina.

:

01:14:10,356 --> 01:14:13,626

The world is a vastly different

and more complex place.

:

01:14:14,371 --> 01:14:18,501

than the grossly simplified version of it

that most people are fed by western media.

:

01:14:19,434 --> 01:14:22,784

Second is you have to

identify trusted sources.

:

01:14:23,734 --> 01:14:27,084

So there are certain accounts on

Twitter, and we still use Twitter

:

01:14:27,084 --> 01:14:29,134

as a read only social media tool.

:

01:14:29,134 --> 01:14:34,124

It's a wonderful and a terrible tool

at the same time, and you just like any

:

01:14:34,124 --> 01:14:37,334

other tool, you have to know to not put

your finger in front of the drill, right?

:

01:14:37,334 --> 01:14:43,854

I mean you, so there are certain

accounts, That engage in the

:

01:14:43,854 --> 01:14:47,094

harvesting of impressions and

engagements for monetary value.

:

01:14:47,894 --> 01:14:50,454

And they are more than happy to spread

:

01:15:16,074 --> 01:15:19,544

trusted sources and identify

sources that you shouldn't trust.

:

01:15:20,474 --> 01:15:24,354

And if you do those two things,

widen the aperture on what

:

01:15:24,354 --> 01:15:25,244

you're willing to consume.

:

01:15:26,054 --> 01:15:30,964

and always be partitioning things you

consume into trusted or not trusted

:

01:15:30,964 --> 01:15:37,684

categories, you stand a far better chance

of getting closer to objective reality

:

01:15:37,693 --> 01:15:43,524

slash truth than perusing the headlines

of any particular western based newspaper.

:

01:15:44,188 --> 01:15:47,128

And because much of the U.

:

01:15:47,128 --> 01:15:47,318

S.

:

01:15:47,318 --> 01:15:52,838

in particular has lost trust in

the traditional media, this is the

:

01:15:52,838 --> 01:15:55,788

inefficiency in the market that

we and many others are exploiting.

:

01:15:56,393 --> 01:16:03,103

So, our greatest brand ambition and

our most sacred brand tactics is we

:

01:16:03,103 --> 01:16:07,593

must 100 percent believe everything

we write the moment we press send.

:

01:16:08,723 --> 01:16:09,743

What happens after that?

:

01:16:10,253 --> 01:16:13,123

We'd like to be right, but we

have to be willing to change our

:

01:16:13,123 --> 01:16:14,463

views when new data comes in.

:

01:16:14,563 --> 01:16:17,583

Sometimes we get things wrong, which

is why we occasionally write a piece

:

01:16:17,583 --> 01:16:20,493

where we grade our previous work

and we try to mix things that we got

:

01:16:20,493 --> 01:16:21,643

right with things that we got wrong.

:

01:16:21,643 --> 01:16:24,743

And then we have a rule, which is

mistakes should be rare, admitted

:

01:16:24,743 --> 01:16:25,893

to, corrected and learned from.

:

01:16:25,893 --> 01:16:26,933

It's a very simple rule.

:

01:16:27,383 --> 01:16:29,233

our audience believes that, we hope.

:

01:16:29,623 --> 01:16:33,883

we've built a brand around that ambition

and people know that if they get a piece

:

01:16:33,883 --> 01:16:38,433

from Doomberg about ivermectin, which

will probably publish this week, it is

:

01:16:38,452 --> 01:16:40,223

our honest best take on the subject.

:

01:16:41,093 --> 01:16:45,353

it might be wrong, you might hate it,

you might disagree with it, but hopefully

:

01:16:45,702 --> 01:16:48,663

only a small number of people will

question our motive for having written it.

:

01:16:49,323 --> 01:16:53,263

and that's rare in the media

world today, but can be found.

:

01:16:53,843 --> 01:16:58,593

And, and you have to find those

Transcribed But always be evaluating them.

:

01:16:59,043 --> 01:17:01,803

You know, I'm old enough to remember

when the judge board was right leaning.

:

01:17:02,683 --> 01:17:06,923

Somebody bought it, and it

went under a substantial shift.

:

01:17:06,923 --> 01:17:10,093

You know, when I read stuff on Zero

Hedge, you have to question some of

:

01:17:10,093 --> 01:17:11,093

it, but some of it's interesting.

:

01:17:11,093 --> 01:17:11,893

It can get you ahead.

:

01:17:11,903 --> 01:17:12,563

But it's fine.

:

01:17:12,753 --> 01:17:17,993

You've got to categorize the

information source for its veracity.

:

01:17:18,413 --> 01:17:19,303

based on experience.

:

01:17:19,583 --> 01:17:24,303

And then you always have to make sure that

you don't get trapped in an echo chamber.

:

01:17:24,313 --> 01:17:27,053

So we had a very tough decision to make

when we went behind the paywall because

:

01:17:27,053 --> 01:17:28,813

we graduated from a blog to a business.

:

01:17:30,073 --> 01:17:31,903

And that's a whole

different endeavor, right?

:

01:17:32,202 --> 01:17:39,151

And we decided to close the comments

to paying subscribers only And

:

01:17:39,151 --> 01:17:41,721

our view was if you want to troll

us, you at least have to pay us.

:

01:17:41,721 --> 01:17:43,501

And if you pay us, you

can troll us all you want.

:

01:17:44,191 --> 01:17:47,221

But also, we sort of police

that comment section.

:

01:17:47,351 --> 01:17:48,711

It's not a free speech zone.

:

01:17:48,921 --> 01:17:50,881

Literally, people are paying to be there.

:

01:17:51,271 --> 01:17:54,091

And we have to protect all of the

people who are paying to be there from

:

01:17:54,091 --> 01:17:57,111

the occasional out of bounds comment.

:

01:17:57,881 --> 01:17:59,111

We have a pretty wide berth.

:

01:17:59,131 --> 01:18:02,171

I think we may have deleted a grand

total of five comments out of the three.

:

01:18:02,971 --> 01:18:08,221

The 250 pieces we've written since going

behind the paywall, a pretty good record.

:

01:18:08,521 --> 01:18:11,621

Mike Philbrick: Yeah, why don't

you post your Ivermectin, see

:

01:18:12,901 --> 01:18:16,131

Doomberg: honestly, this is why we didn't,

we didn't post the, Israel story, which we

:

01:18:16,131 --> 01:18:18,951

haven't talked about, or still pondering

whether we should, because certain

:

01:18:18,951 --> 01:18:21,461

topics just generate very high emotion.

:

01:18:21,461 --> 01:18:21,681

Right.

:

01:18:21,741 --> 01:18:22,021

And,

:

01:18:22,071 --> 01:18:22,651

Mike Philbrick: Well, I mean, you

:

01:18:22,761 --> 01:18:23,311

Doomberg: have some, you know,

:

01:18:23,491 --> 01:18:26,271

Mike Philbrick: you've mentioned one

before too, that, you know, Adam, you're

:

01:18:26,271 --> 01:18:27,841

talking about messages around the edge.

:

01:18:27,851 --> 01:18:31,931

What about messages on climate change

that are coming from government

:

01:18:31,931 --> 01:18:36,541

sponsored institutions with a

narrative to drive a certain outcome?

:

01:18:36,871 --> 01:18:39,391

Like it's not just

messages around the edges.

:

01:18:40,626 --> 01:18:46,546

It's messages from the middle that

help continue to pollute, you know, the

:

01:18:46,546 --> 01:18:50,696

layperson to the point where it's hard

to sort of come away with a decision

:

01:18:50,776 --> 01:18:52,216

of, right or wrong, if you will.

:

01:18:53,151 --> 01:18:57,101

Doomberg: yeah, we, we don't have

many paying subscribers who are, you

:

01:18:57,101 --> 01:19:00,841

know, Who think the world is going

to end because of carbon emissions.

:

01:19:01,411 --> 01:19:04,441

so that that's not, doesn't

really drive much in the way of

:

01:19:04,441 --> 01:19:05,681

controversy in our comment section.

:

01:19:05,681 --> 01:19:08,951

Again, the risk of closing your

comments to subscribers is you do

:

01:19:08,951 --> 01:19:10,411

risk creating an echo chamber, right?

:

01:19:10,800 --> 01:19:14,451

where everybody says how great your work

is and everybody agrees with each other.

:

01:19:14,451 --> 01:19:17,861

And, so we do welcome debate

and we do welcome polite

:

01:19:17,861 --> 01:19:19,511

criticism, but the only rule.

:

01:19:19,971 --> 01:19:23,351

That we enforce is you have to be

polite, and we think that that's

:

01:19:23,391 --> 01:19:27,461

missing from modern discourse, the

team sports aspect of politics, right?

:

01:19:27,871 --> 01:19:32,901

so climate change, and by the way, the,

this is becoming more normal to wonder

:

01:19:32,901 --> 01:19:37,961

whether some of the more extreme and

unscientific claims shouldn't really be

:

01:19:38,591 --> 01:19:42,891

taken with such, you know, such literal

interpretations of what's being said.

:

01:19:42,891 --> 01:19:47,471

And this is, you know, Again, an

example of people, in this piece we

:

01:19:47,471 --> 01:19:49,581

wrote about the hurricanes, like we

had no hurricane season, and then

:

01:19:49,581 --> 01:19:52,321

we had two hurricanes, and suddenly

climate change was back, right?

:

01:19:52,561 --> 01:19:53,281

That's not science.

:

01:19:53,281 --> 01:19:55,300

I mean, call it whatever you

want, that's not science.

:

01:19:55,821 --> 01:19:59,021

and so, that's becoming more

acceptable, especially if you do

:

01:19:59,021 --> 01:20:00,631

it in a polite way, backed by data.

:

01:20:00,741 --> 01:20:02,271

And look, one of the things

we do is we show our homework.

:

01:20:02,300 --> 01:20:04,861

Like, here is the basis of our

opinions, here's the hyperlinks.

:

01:20:05,116 --> 01:20:06,576

You can go and investigate this yourself.

:

01:20:06,786 --> 01:20:08,456

You can think we're full of

it because of A, B, and C.

:

01:20:08,456 --> 01:20:12,706

We're happy to receive polite, politely

written, rebuttals to our pieces.

:

01:20:12,706 --> 01:20:14,806

Cause that's how we learn, you know,

for example, we've got something

:

01:20:14,806 --> 01:20:17,856

fundamentally wrong about the

natural gas market interference.

:

01:20:17,856 --> 01:20:21,726

And then we corrected it and

basically set the record straight.

:

01:20:21,906 --> 01:20:22,946

We don't like to do that.

:

01:20:23,766 --> 01:20:27,286

Like typos and, and facts,

factual errors are our nightmare.

:

01:20:27,416 --> 01:20:30,596

every time we publish a piece, the

first 30 minutes is a very stressful

:

01:20:30,596 --> 01:20:32,306

time because if you do have a typo.

:

01:20:32,766 --> 01:20:36,786

Or, or a factual error in your piece,

it will be discovered and you will

:

01:20:36,786 --> 01:20:40,396

get waves of emails from people,

especially if it's above the cut to

:

01:20:40,396 --> 01:20:41,866

paid in our entire free list, see it.

:

01:20:42,296 --> 01:20:45,866

the only benefit of that is it

teaches the spam algorithms that

:

01:20:45,866 --> 01:20:48,666

maybe we're not spam because people

normally don't reply to spam.

:

01:20:48,736 --> 01:20:51,206

and so we generate a lot of email

response when we have a typo.

:

01:20:51,786 --> 01:20:53,356

We even pondered the strategic typo

:

01:20:53,596 --> 01:20:55,966

Mike Philbrick: I was just

gonna say the strategic typo.

:

01:20:56,396 --> 01:20:58,136

This is a typo, you'll know.

:

01:20:58,906 --> 01:21:00,286

Paragraph three, line eight.

:

01:21:00,326 --> 01:21:03,946

Doomberg: we're we're too proud and

too perfectionist to ever do that on

:

01:21:03,946 --> 01:21:05,826

purpose but we joked about it for sure.

:

01:21:05,876 --> 01:21:11,936

So yeah read a bunch of stuff like

the fact that almost nobody reads

:

01:21:12,016 --> 01:21:15,776

what the Russians are telling

themselves Is amazing to me.

:

01:21:16,286 --> 01:21:20,141

I like to read what the Ukrainians

are telling themselves You can

:

01:21:20,141 --> 01:21:22,661

learn a lot, and you have to

put it in certain categories.

:

01:21:22,661 --> 01:21:27,961

Like I read what the CBC is telling

Canadians about Trudeau, for example,

:

01:21:27,961 --> 01:21:31,531

even though I happen to have a, probably

a wildly different view of the man than

:

01:21:31,761 --> 01:21:33,588

many of the people who work there do.

:

01:21:33,948 --> 01:21:36,488

you have to see what people are telling

themselves to get a holistic view

:

01:21:36,488 --> 01:21:38,548

of how and why people are behaving.

:

01:21:39,577 --> 01:21:43,878

and the, the comfort of

confirmation bias is a trap.

:

01:21:44,904 --> 01:21:45,224

Adam Butler: Oh, God.

:

01:21:45,224 --> 01:21:46,094

Yeah, for sure.

:

01:21:46,144 --> 01:21:50,074

Perhaps the greatest trap, was it Feynman

who says, try not to fool yourself.

:

01:21:50,074 --> 01:21:51,364

And you're the easiest person to fool.

:

01:21:51,664 --> 01:21:51,954

Doomberg: Yeah.

:

01:21:52,014 --> 01:21:53,023

And look, we're not perfect.

:

01:21:53,044 --> 01:21:54,349

I mean, obviously everybody, right?

:

01:21:54,989 --> 01:21:57,619

Everybody swims in their

own propaganda pool.

:

01:21:58,799 --> 01:22:02,129

You just try to be as

aware of it as possible.

:

01:22:02,843 --> 01:22:05,143

Recognizing that we are imperfect beings.

:

01:22:05,293 --> 01:22:06,452

We're not AI.

:

01:22:06,452 --> 01:22:08,853

Even AI hallucinates, you know.

:

01:22:09,133 --> 01:22:09,763

Still.

:

01:22:10,883 --> 01:22:12,913

getting better, by the way,

but it still hallucinates.

:

01:22:13,003 --> 01:22:17,268

I have many long arguments with

ChatGPT that might make for

:

01:22:17,268 --> 01:22:18,228

an interesting piece someday.

:

01:22:19,398 --> 01:22:19,829

Mike Philbrick: Got a few of

:

01:22:19,904 --> 01:22:20,074

Doomberg: know?

:

01:22:20,904 --> 01:22:21,234

Yeah.

:

01:22:21,273 --> 01:22:24,134

And by the way, this AI

is a tool for the expert.

:

01:22:24,134 --> 01:22:28,304

Like it's going to widen the

inequality spectrum for sure.

:

01:22:28,324 --> 01:22:31,544

It makes, you know, skilled

people far more skilled.

:

01:22:33,264 --> 01:22:34,544

It's, it's a really powerful tool.

:

01:22:35,023 --> 01:22:35,434

Adam Butler: agree.

:

01:22:35,434 --> 01:22:35,834

Yeah.

:

01:22:35,894 --> 01:22:41,594

The 01 preview model has, has

really demonstrated that quality of

:

01:22:41,714 --> 01:22:43,974

the most advanced AI's now where.

:

01:22:44,684 --> 01:22:50,464

really, only those operating in very

specialized fields in mathematics,

:

01:22:50,464 --> 01:22:53,354

chemistry, material science, et cetera.

:

01:22:53,914 --> 01:23:00,234

like, the edges of the niches in biology

are able to really make effective

:

01:23:00,234 --> 01:23:02,664

use of these most advanced models.

:

01:23:03,644 --> 01:23:06,814

The average person just doesn't

know the difference and has

:

01:23:06,814 --> 01:23:07,704

no idea how to use them.

:

01:23:08,184 --> 01:23:08,404

Doomberg: Yeah.

:

01:23:08,614 --> 01:23:13,724

The perplexly, the perplexly,

perplexity app is really powerful.

:

01:23:13,754 --> 01:23:14,414

I don't know if you've

:

01:23:14,654 --> 01:23:17,644

Adam Butler: Yeah, I've been using it

from the very start as a subscriber.

:

01:23:17,644 --> 01:23:18,164

I absolutely love it.

:

01:23:18,609 --> 01:23:22,059

Doomberg: Yeah, like it's very, it

rarely hallucinates, and so that

:

01:23:22,059 --> 01:23:23,369

one's a tougher one to argue against.

:

01:23:23,641 --> 01:23:23,941

Adam Butler: Yep.

:

01:23:24,151 --> 01:23:24,571

Agree.

:

01:23:25,211 --> 01:23:27,771

Well, I actually have to

get to another meeting.

:

01:23:27,771 --> 01:23:30,501

I'm sure everyone else has,

has busy days to get to.

:

01:23:30,550 --> 01:23:36,071

I've got lots more questions, which

we'll put a pin in until next time.

:

01:23:36,191 --> 01:23:41,251

But for my part, thank you so much

again, Doomy, for coming on and

:

01:23:41,251 --> 01:23:47,171

sharing your research, your insights,

your wisdom with our audience.

:

01:23:47,191 --> 01:23:53,211

And, as always, we would encourage

everybody listening to, go and subscribe

:

01:23:53,261 --> 01:23:56,191

to Doomberg's, writing and research.

:

01:23:56,231 --> 01:23:58,561

Doomberg, where can people

find you officially?

:

01:23:58,971 --> 01:24:01,294

Doomberg: we, uh, we are now

the proud owners of doomberg.

:

01:24:01,294 --> 01:24:02,864

com, the domain name.

:

01:24:02,864 --> 01:24:06,404

So, we're still on Substack,

but we have our own domain name.

:

01:24:06,494 --> 01:24:07,594

So if you just go to doomberg.

:

01:24:07,594 --> 01:24:08,634

com, you'll find everything.

:

01:24:09,104 --> 01:24:12,834

we have all of our articles, our

pro tier, our podcast appearances,

:

01:24:12,884 --> 01:24:14,374

everything there for, for people to see.

:

01:24:14,374 --> 01:24:15,644

I really appreciated the invite guys.

:

01:24:15,644 --> 01:24:16,624

Always a great conversation.

:

01:24:16,624 --> 01:24:19,693

I look forward to the next one because

we never really seem to be able to

:

01:24:19,693 --> 01:24:23,164

cover everything we want to talk about

in, in what is still a relatively long

:

01:24:23,164 --> 01:24:25,574

period of time, and that just means that

the conversations must be interesting.

:

01:24:26,299 --> 01:24:26,568

Mike Philbrick: Yeah.

:

01:24:26,719 --> 01:24:28,159

And yep.

:

01:24:28,289 --> 01:24:29,898

And you're welcome Doom Nation.

:

01:24:30,259 --> 01:24:34,329

Great to have you Doomie and I know

you've got quite a following and lots of

:

01:24:34,329 --> 01:24:37,779

people will be looking forward to, uh,

coming to this point in this conversation.

:

01:24:37,829 --> 01:24:38,309

Thanks again.

:

01:24:38,914 --> 01:24:39,354

Doomberg: Appreciate it.

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About the Podcast

Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast
Welcome to ReSolve Riffs Investment Podcast, hosted by the team at ReSolve Global*, where evidence inspires confidence.
These podcasts will dig deep to uncover investment truths and life hacks you won’t find in the mainstream media, covering topics that appeal to left-brained robots, right-brained poets and everyone in between. In this show we interview deep thinkers in the world of quantitative finance such as Larry Swedroe, Meb Faber and many more, all with the goal of helping you reach excellence. Welcome to the journey.


*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.